HokieJayBee's NFL Week 11

Week 11, NFL season 2009. I think I’m done with football until they modify the roughing-the-passer rules. These pansy calls are atrocious. I actually just got a 15-yarder for typing “roughing-the-passer”.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

68.38% straight up picks for your office pool (93-43)

53.85% against the spread this year on recommended plays (56-48)

51.41% over-all including the recommended no-actions (73-69)

Thoughts for the past week:

*Mid-day Sunday I sure as hell felt like I was having a better day than I was. Then Monday morning when I reviewed the scores and I found I was pretty mediocre. Blah. Surprises: Washington over Denver, Green Bay over Dallas, and Cincinnati over Pittsburgh. Big “wow” to those three.

*I went (9-6) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Well that sucks. You just lost your office pool to the receptionist who picks teams that have a pigment of Red in their uniforms.

*With the books, I stayed flat. Boo. Went (7-7) overall but (5-6) against the spread on the recommended picks. That’s (2-1) in NO ACTION plays. Sigh.

* I’m still positive for the year, barely, depending on the vig you’re paying. I don’t have the feelings for it this year like I used to. I used to be able to pick 6-7 against the spread without blinking, and then research and think about the rest. Split those in the second category for a 10-4 or 9-5 against the spread. No more.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning

*Drew Brees

*Carson Palmer

*Tom Brady

*Brett Favre?

[the “Trains I’m on” category has been temporarily renamed to the “Veteran White Quarterbacks” category?]

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (I beg of you, beat Dallas)

*Larry Johnson (LOL cut)

*Jay Cutler (try your team’s receivers once, just once)

[II] Week 11 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	MIA @ CAR	CAR -3.5	CAR	CAR	FAVE	YES	Thursday night game. Ronnie Brown out for the year. I guess MIA will run Pat White now in the wildcat and Ricky will be the every down back. Even if D’Angelo is out for Carolina I think James Stewart will be fine. I’m shying away from Flipper here on a short week adjusting to no Ronnie on the road. Would love to see -2.5 and not -3.5 but I’m still on the Panthers at home here.	CAR 23-16
2	WAS @ DAL	DAL -10.5	DAL	DAL	FAVE	YES	As a Redskin fan, surprised by the victory last week, heading into the rivalry game, I *want* to take them here at Dallas – especially getting 10 points. But I can’t. Dallas looked like a bag of cat crap last week and is back down in the playoff bubble. I think Dallas comes out here pissed off and blazing and easily covers the -10.5.	DAL 27-13
3	CLE @ DET	DET -3.5	DET	CLE	DOG	YES	I’m not paying Michael Buffer any royalties. But don’t worry, no one is screaming anything about getting ready to rumble for these two. Here’s some advice. BET THE UNDER. One of those cases where I think it’s bad, real bad, and low. So that extra -0.5 on that field goal makes me sway to the dog.	DET 10-9 (CLE cover)
4	SF @ GB	GB -6.5	GB	SF	DOG	YES	This could be a great defensive battle. Neither offense has been lighting up the scoreboard, or able to protect their QB. Both D’s have been bringing heat on the opposing team’s QB lately. I’m seeing some defensive scoring here. I like GB at home to win no problem; I don’t like the -6.5 though.	GB 24-20 (SF cover)
5	PIT @ KC	PIT -10.5	PIT	PIT	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Jamaal Charles had a little post-Larry-Johnson coming out party last week. Um, PITT run D > OAK run D. PITT has already made their rougher than normal practice schedule this week public news, after losing at home to CINCI. Unfortunately for KC, they just happen to be next up.	PIT 30-10
6	ATL @ NYG	NYG -6.5	NYG	ATL	DOG	NO	I’ve described before how I usually have my 4 NO ACTION games picked out before I do any line or spread picks. Originally CLE/DET was a NO ACTION game until I saw two different sets of notes I had going for this week – on one set I had reasons written up to take NYG and on the other I had reasons written up to take ATL. Translation: now a NO ACTION pick. If Michael Turner doesn’t play toss this pick out the window.	NYG 24-23 (ATL cover)
7	NO @ TB	NO -11.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	I almost took Tampa to cover here. New Orleans didn’t cover at St. Lou last week, and Tampa did against Miami (with Ronnie Brown). Then I didn’t take Tampa to cover. I think I was actually thinking Tampa when I was just typing “N.O. | FAVE | YES” to the left. Who am I kidding? New Orleans has been getting by just-getting-it-done and they’re in the right part of their schedule for it to be this way.	NO 31-13
8	BUF @ JAC	JAC -8.5	JAC	BUF	DOG	NO	I’m totally laying off this game. Even if the Bills didn’t undergo the league’s first coaching change this year and fire Jauron this week, I don’t know how much I would have liked -8.5. I mean, what if they were up 7 late. MJD would just take a knee on the Bills’ 1. Seriously though, don’t know which Bills team shows up with the coaching crap going on. NO ACTION here.	JAC 20-13 (BUF cover)
9	IND @ BAL	IND -0.5	IND	IND	FAVE	NO	Man, Vegas sure knows how to tweak a team’s emotions. This line has got to piss the Ravens off. We think you’re good. We think you can hang with the Colts,……..almost. They’re going to barely beat you in your house here. I’m taking the Colts here in a NO ACTION game. Obviously Peyton vs. Ray and Ed will be fun to watch. I just don’t know if the lately-lowly-Raven-O can score enough to make the Colt-O-slowed-by-Raven-D matter.	IND 30-27
10	SEA @ MIN	MIN -10.5	MIN	SEA	DOG	YES	I’ve got a nasty feeling about a Viking let down here. I mean, I just moved them to #1 on my top 5. Murphy’s law right? I don’t think this game is ever in real jeopardy for the win, but I’m seeing Seattle stay within 10 for some reason. We get to watch another week of 8 in the box for AP, can Favre continue to find Rice and Harvin?	MIN 27-20 (SEA cover)
11	ARI @ STL	ARI -8.5	ARI	ARI	FAVE	YES	After St. Lou covered the Saints last week at home, I first leaned towards them covering again. Then I looked up some stats on the Cards/Rams. Then I remembered it’s Warner vs. his old team. I think the Cards are up here to help Kurt smash them. The Rams can only hope to keep feeding Steven Jackson and keep the Cards off the field, but I see -8.5 easy.	ARI 27-13
12	NYJ @ NE	NE -10.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	Everything about this game says closer than -10.5. Divisional game. Jets D improved. Jets not out of playoffs yet. Blah blah blah. Now think about any of Belichick’s career games after a loss. Let alone after an embarrassing loss. It’s a shame the Jets just caught the wrath, bad luck scheduling having the Pats this week. I almost locked this one up. Take the over, the Pats might cover themselves.	NE 41-20
13	CIN @ OAK	CIN -9.5	CIN	CIN	FAVE	YES	Look up “trap game” or “let down game” or “hangover (with respect to football)” in the dictionary and it’s this game. Cinci, coming off the sweep of the Ravens and Steelers, heading out to Oakland to play the hapless Raiders. I was actually contemplating taking OAK to cover until I read about the QB switch. I think that CINCI D is playing well right now and I don’t see Bruce Gradowski changing that.	CIN 27-9
14	SD @ DEN	NO LINE	SD	NO LINE	FAVE	NO	No line out yet with Orton’s ankle injury. Mark me down here, I’m taking SD to win even if Orton plays. The Broncos are turning down, and fast. SD is turning up, and fast. If Chris Simms plays, I’m flying to Vegas specifically to legally bet on SD anywhere up to -24.5. Has to be NO ACTION because of the line L SD would have been an easy cover here.	SD 27-17 (Orton) SD 38-13 (Simms)
15	PHI @ CHI	PHI -2.5	PHI	PHI	FAVE	YES	Philadelphia players will have 29 catches this Sunday night. 26 by the receivers and 3 by the defenders. LOL at Jay Cutler in prime time. Go look up his stat differential on games not in prime time vs. that of his on Thurs/Sun/Mon nights. Atrocious. Oh look, a Sunday night game. I’ll take Philly here, even on the road with the -2.5.	PHI 27-20
16	TEN @ HOU	HOU -4.5	HOU	HOU	FAVE	YES	Probably would have been the 4th NO ACTION game if I didn’t have to make SD/DEN NO ACTION because of the whole no line to bet on thing. TEN has definitely resurged here lately and Vince Young is playing well. To say the least, I’m admittedly surprised by Vince’s play. And that Chris Johnson guy…..wow. I’d love to ride the wave of TEN’s recent successes, but have to lean towards HOU at home here off of a bye. I’d feel better about -2.5, but whatevs.	HOU 29-23

--only taking 5 dogs this week

--only 2 of the 4 recommended NO-ACTION games are dogs

--holy crap I’m taking some road winners, SU and against the spread

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(After 10 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. MINN – Of the ‘big 3’ (Minny, Indy, Nawlins), I have MINN on top despite having the loss because of the way they’re beating people. I think on a neutral field today MINN would be favored -3 over INDY and NO.
2. INDY – huge win over NEW ENG this past week in 4^th-down-gate. Still undefeated, but not impressing lately. Need a signature win not based on a late call by the other team on 4^th down.
3. NO – still undefeated, but not wowing anyone anymore. All too close of a game at the hapless Rams this past week. The Saints’ games have a ho-hum, just getting by, feeling to them.
4. CINCI – HUGE huge win in PITT last week. Defense really played well and shut Big Ben down. Just think, they’re a freak tipped pass in week 1 (Stokeley, Broncos) from being 8-1.
5. NEW ENG – I can’t drop you off the list for a 35-34 loss to the undefeated Colts. Very abnormal clock management and time out management by a Belichick team, though.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(After 10 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. DET – Beat CLEV at home this week. Please.
2. OAK – you lost to KC. Jamarcus Russell to Darrius Heyward-Bey? LoLs.
3. CLEV – Beat DET on the road this week. Please.
4. TAMPA – even winning late in the 4^th, not once did I think you had it against Miami this past week. Not once.
5. BUFF – uh oh. Old school TO rears his ugly head. You got blown out in TENN, ……BLOWN OUT. I don’t like the looks of give-up. First coach fired in ’09.
6. Others receiving votes:
1. KC – beating OAK doesn’t clear you off my list.
2. CHI – lose this week at home to Philly? with a couple completions to Philly DB’s?
3. WASH – hail victory? Wow. Surprised me. Grab a win at Dallas this week and Zorn keeps his job?

3. I think the dictionary is funny sometimes.

Brady Quinn [brey-dee] [kwin] – not good in any manner or degree. Of poor or inferior quality, defective, deficient. Inadequate or below standard. Not satisfactory for use. Inaccurate, incorrect, or faulty.

4. I think you should watch the ESPN Monday Night Football pre-game and broadcast [minus the inclusion of one Keyshawn Johnson]. Seriously though. Ditka on the pre-game and Gruden doing the color for the game. They’re both priceless as commentators. Just great great stuff. When asked last week what he thought of the Jacksonville RB coach telling MJD to down the ball at the 1 to run out the clock and kick a field goal (while still losing) without the head coaches’ approval – Ditka said, “He’s fired. Not after the game. Not next week. Fired. Leave the sideline now. No check, no contract clause. He’s fired.” Quality American television.
5. I think I’m going to save you all from reading any more about Belichick’s 4^th down decision and talk more about something else. Like the Bengals. Sweeping through the AFC North. Swept Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just playing lights out ball right now. I have a lot of respect for their wins this year, some tough hard fought games. But I did hear them get disrespected on a network show last week after their win in Pittsburgh. I don’t think it was meant as an insult or think it was underhanded, but after their win in Pittsburgh, one of the postgame shows said they were playing well, they are playing “Steeler Football”. Ummm, no. This year they’re playing “Bengal Football”. They’re (2-0) against Steeler Football.
6. I think if you ever doubt anyone who questions how there aren’t more than 32 good quarterbacks in the entire league, or in the world, you’re missing something. If you ever have any questions, just look up and watch a tape of the Broncos/Redskins from Week 10, November 15, 2009. Kyle Orton goes down with an ankle injury. Chris Simms comes in to replace him. You know that phrase, “couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn”?
7. I think I heard some interesting stuff on the radio the other morning. It had to do with winning percentages of teams on certain games when they have a 300+ yard passer, a 100+ yard rusher, and/or a 100+ yard receiver. I did a little dabbling research myself and found it to be pretty astounding. I might delve more into it for the rest of this year and maybe last year’s stats too – and maybe get to a real post with a bunch of data. But it was pretty damn telling how important a 100+ yard rusher is WAY more important than a 300+ yard passer, which in turn is WAY more important than a 100+ yard receiver – when looking just at did that player’s team win the game he put up said stats. At first glance it makes sense because if you’re losing you’re throwing more – but not to the winning percentages (or lack thereof) I found in my quick stat look this week – at how blatantly skewed the winning percentages are for rusher > passer > receiver.
8. I think my non-football thought of the week this week is for your TV viewing pleasure. Criminal Minds on CBS is a sick show. Because of the inherent repetitiveness of the CSI’s simply because of the basis for the storylines, I think Criminal Minds has passed the CSI’s in drama/plot lines. If you don’t watch it now, toss Criminal Minds in your DVR queue.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to a now double recipient this season. I don’t know what it is, but I can’t stand the excessive celebrations. [don’t ask regarding my hypocrite tendencies, but Ocho Cinco is ok in my book. Maybe it’s because there’s props or plans or scripts, rather than just getting overly-jiggy with it for celebration of one’s accomplishments] Anyways, this week’s recipient, his second award this year, goes to Donnie Avery of the Rams. The (1-8) Rams. Nice touchdown catch. Your 4^th this year? So if you get 6 points for every score, x 4 = 24 points scored. Yep, you dance for more than a second for each point scored. You’re awesome. Quit the choreography and get back to sideline and help the team be better than (1-8) jackass.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award also goes to another multi-time recipient. One Keyshawn Johnson. How does this guy have a paying job that requires him to speak intelligently and with proper pronunciation? How? This past week on Monday Night Countdown prior to the MNF game, Keyshawn repeatedly called the Bengals coach “Marvin Harrison”. Ummm, it’s Marvin Lewis. Then, when trying to explain that something “isn’t that hard” to do, he kept pronouncing it, “isn’t that whored”. So Keyshawn, it’s HARD, sounds like the R sound. Does he mail out birthday cords? Mow his yored?

College Football TV Viewing Guide Week 12 (Never Give Up Edition)

I almost mailed it in ... like the Terps and Jayhawks but I did not. Oh so close to making this a quickie shit viewing guide, but I am going to gut it out. I will say the subpar season and the awful weekly matchup games have made it tough. "The Play" above keeps me coming back for more ... you never know when your heart is going to get ripped out or when your team makes a miracle comeback and shit houses their band for extra salt to the wound.

From BCO Pix2

By the way I am still laughing at a couple of things. The first one is how mad Pete Carroll is at Hardballs for going for 2 up 48-21 last week. Umm, this from a coach who RUNS IT UP on ANYONE. Hey Pete, suck it up and STFU. Also from last week, I like the Ole Miss joke about puke Orange's recruiting coordinator and ex-Ole Miss coach, crazy cajun Ed "Wild Boy" Orgeron "He still can't get a win a game in Oxford!" (read that link, funny as hell.) LSUFreek's gif above is amazing as always. Follow him on twitter, a must!

On to this week, the GoW is .... ummmm ... no damn clue. Just keep watching, I am sure 1 or 2 will be great. By the way, who let uva on tv other than Raycom. Sure Clemson needs a win to clinch the ACC Atlantic but the hoos don't deserve tv time, unless they are playing the Hokies obviously.

From BCO Pix2

No Thursday game for the viewing guide, A BCO first, but "I'm a MAN, I'm 40" vs "THIS IS Big12 football, it's NOT INTRAMURALS" makes for a slightly interesting storyline. Then the reality of good players, coaches and homefield advantage will smack the shit out of the Buffaloes in the first 10 mins and we'll all be DVR'ring Californication, Dexter and Curb episodes we have missed.

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 5-3 to date 54-34 --- 61%
against the spread 5-3 to date 40-47-1 --- 46%

better, but I suck. Acceptance stage.

The Games:

Saturday, November 21st
UNC (7-3) [+3.5] at b.c. (7-3) noon espn2
Note to self, Never Ever count b.c. out. Lose a coach, no biggie go to the ACCCG. Lose a great QB and all your RB's, no big deal go to the ACCCG, lose another HC, gain an old as shit OC, lose the DPOY, 2 first day NFL draft DT's and have the worst starting QB situation in a BCS conference to start the season ... in contention for another trip to the ACCCG. Big Props. Butch Davis also deserves a mention, he has turned the program around, mid season after a devastating loss to f$u, outstanding D and an improving offense. This game should be a great defensive matchup.

whatagainistheOhioState (9-2) at MissAgain (5-6) [+12.5] noon abc
Rivalry week has begun, well at least for the Big1+10 schools. No one is giving MissAgain much of a chance ... again. Reminds me of VT vs uva. Subplot, DickRod is in some hot water ... how much? Not clear, but likely gets 1 more season. Lets be honest, he's a bad fit at MissAgain, it will not end well. Next stop Miami of Ohio or something like that. However, I do know if he wins vs tOSU, then all is forgiven. tOSU plays like VT, ball control and needs the defense score or set up scores to run it up on most teams. Buckeyes win but likely won't cover. DickRod will pull out all the stops but his D is shit.

From BCO Pix2

OU (6-4) [-6.5] at Tejas Tech (6-4) 12:30 pm fsn
One of 2 matchups between underachieving Big 12 teams. OU looks improved now that Jones is settling in or maybe cause the competition is borderline South Dakota H.S. quality. Ida know. Even if I were home, I would not watch, I just need 8 games for this Viewing guide. Mailed this one in, but hope to snap out of it further down the guide.

LSU (8-2) [+4.5] at Ole Miss (7-3) 3:30 pm cbs
Pop quiz ... which coach has ridden the recruits of his predecessor? If you answered both, you win. Les is well less, but he did get a Mythical National Championship with Nick Satan's bunch (even if those Bayou Bengals were a so-so champion.) Only thing the Nutter has done is get the hopes up of a beleaguered, think they are on the same level as LSU, Bama and UF programs fan base. I like Houston Nutt but maybe I was a bit too high on his coaching ability. Anyone who plays 7 games with an offensive system that makes Bryan Stinespring look like Gus Malzahn before changing it to fit the skill set of his players ... isn't that great. Les in a couple years has proven, he can't bring in as good of talent as Saban, can't keep the team discplined as Saban nor surround himself with as good a lot of assistant coaches as Saban. He however can make almost just as much money as Nick Saban, so my friends ... Les is (worth way) more than you.

From BCO Pix2

NCState (4-6) [+19.5] at VT (7-3) 3:30 pm espnu
It's Senior day, give this lot a big loud ROAR, specially my boy Cody! This game is featuring the best H.S. qb from the state of Virginia in 2006 ... Russell Wilson. Huh? Taylor is the better athlete but as QB, it helps to be able to see the play before it happens, read the defense and deliver in a timely matter. At this point whether by natural ability or schooling (it's not the talent around them, VT trumps State there) Wilson is better. You better be damned sure he wants to show VT they should have recruited him and that he was better than Tyrod. doook and State where his only offers. State has a trash D, like Maryland bad but their O is good and at times very good. Relatively high scoring and entertaining. I'll be there in another epic up and back game, drinking lightly (relatively) and cornholing!

From BCO Pix2

KState (6-5) [+16.5] at Nebraska (7-3) 7:45 pm espn
Ummm .... ummmmm .... ummmmm. Yeah, 2nd one mailed in. Garbage IN ... Garbage OUT.

Oregon (8-2) [-6] at Zona (6-3) 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp
Should be a entertaining game, up and down the field as only the Pac10 can. Oregon can score on anyone not named Boise State and Zona is much improved even in the loss at Cal last week. The Pac10 is easily the most balanced and best conference in CFB, but with no true elite team (ACC '08 like.) If you can watch this game, do so ... Oregon's offense when on is a thing of beauty and easily my favorite offense in college football.

Cal (7-3) at Stanford (7-3) [-7.5] 9:30 pm vs
Another Pac10 gem, Toby Gerhart is a badass mofo. Runs straight, upright and hard. No dancing, man up for him, if you don't you'll get trucked. Another great game and he's headed to NYC. 27 Years ago ... "The Play" top 5 greatest moment in CFB history happened. Think the trombone play still curls up like a bitch when he sees him self Gerhart'd on every replay? Hang onto that Golden Bears, you aren't winning this year. I hope Hardballs runs it up and goes for 2 on Tedford too. Both these teams are pretty good and it's a big rivalry between nerd schools, loser has to give up their interactive Guitar t-shirt and Pokemon collection.

From BCO Pix2

Alright, I need my beauty sleep, got a smoker with wings, oysters, beer and BIG 12 FOOTBALL tomorrow night. Have safe travels all. Made the playoffs in the ACC bloggers fantasy college football group. Need to beat down some b.c. eagle guy to move to the finals. RW, Montel Harris and Auburn QB Chris Todd need to take me to the Championship game.

HokieJayBee's NFL Week 10

What’s up? Week 10, NFL season 2009. This week’s edition is a celebration of the downturn of my season. And the immense, I told you so feeling, I’ve had building for a couple weeks.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

69.42% straight up picks for your office pool (84-37)

54.84% against the spread this year on recommended plays (51-42)

51.56% over-all including the recommended no-actions (66-62)

Thoughts for the past week:

*That “I told you so” feeling I’ve had brewing for a couple weeks is because I’ve been treading the line on a lot of big favorite lines. I just couldn’t bring myself to take some of these dogs in these games [extreme lack of parity in the league right now]. But these lines for the favorites have been creeping up, and up, and up. Years past, a -6.5 line was the normal “big” line for the week. It was on the high end for the week. This year, there’s been a consistent level of -13.5’s, -14.5’s, and even a couple -16.5’s. And, the “normal” favorite line has creeped to -9.5 and -10.5, away from the old standard -6.5. And, I predicted correctly. I got hammered this week with a bunch of favorites winning by 3 to 7, instead of 10.

*I went (9-4) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Well that sucks. You just lost your office pool to the receptionist who picks teams based on her feelings that somehow a Cardinal could beat up a Bear. You might be doing well for the whole season, since you get 9 or 10 wins a week, but you haven’t won any weeks.

*With the books, I got hammered. Went (4-9) overall but (2-7) against the spread on the recommended picks. That’s (2-2) in NO ACTION plays. Sigh.

*All these damn big spreads. I hate it.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning

*Drew Brees

*Carson Palmer

*Tom Brady

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (debacle)

*Larry Johnson (LOL cut)

[II] Week 10 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	CHI @ SF	SF -2.5	SF	--	FAVE	NO	I can’t even lie to you and tell you I had SF at home here. This game was going to be a NO ACTION game regardless of Thursday game or not. Both of these teams needed a win badly, and both have quarterbacks that have a fondness for giving the ball to the other team. Knew it was going to be close, can’t tell you I would’ve taken SF	--
2	DET @ MIN	MIN -16.5	MIN	MIN	FAVE	YES	Dammit. Another near 17 point spread. I have no fear the Vikings win here. Coming off of a bye, hapless Detroit coming into the Metrodome. But 17? Geez. I’m fearing a 27-13 here. But I can’t take the Lions, I just can’t.	MIN 37-13
3	DEN @ WAS	DEN -3.5	DEN	DEN	FAVE	YES	Denver fell back twice from (6-0) versus the Ravens and Steelers. Not too horrible to worry about yet. I’m seeing a bounce back here, with the Bronco D getting 6+ sacks and 3+ turnovers. It’s just a bad year to be a skin fan. I mean, bad decade.	DEN 27-10
4	TB @ MIA	MIA -9.5	MIA	TB	DOG	YES	I’m thinking Miami doesn’t have any problems here at home for the win. I don’t like the -9.5, though. Tampa was playing inspired ball against GB last week, loading up emotion on the rookie QB Freeman and feeding off his good play. So, I’m picking them to stay within the 9.5 here.	MIA 24-17 (Tampa cover)
5	BUF @ TEN	TEN -7.5	TEN	BUF	DOG	YES	Yuck game, not the blegh game of the week though with KC and OAK squaring off, but close. Tennessee looks like they’ve righted the ship, and like Tampa, feeding off the emotion of the QB switch to Vince Young. Again, I like TENN to win at home here no problem, but I don’t like the -7.5. Buffalo can play boring on O and tight D and stay within the TD here.	TENN 16-13 (Buffalo cover)
6	NO @ STL	NO -13.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	Another huge spread. I’m actually glad to see NO closer to 14 than 17 point favorites. Had less to talk myself into staying on a huge favorite. Even with the 13.5 to play with, I can’t take STL here. NO is too good. Which 3 different receivers will have TD’s this week from Brees?	NO 34-6
7	JAC @ NYJ	NYJ -6.5	NYJ	NYJ	FAVE	YES	When I first saw this game, I said to myself I’d be taking the Jets at home, as long as the line isn’t -6 or worse. Then the lines come out. Of course. -6.5. I don’t think the Jets dominate here, but I think coming off their bye week they’ll have enough playing on the defensive side to hold the Jags down. Gonna take the Jets at home here off the bye.	NYJ 27-17
8	ATL @ CAR	ATL -1.5	CAR	CAR	DOG	YES	This game is the one I can’t explain my feelings on it, but for some reason my feelings are strong enough to not make it a NO ACTION game this week. Atlanta won last week, but not looking pretty. Carolina appears to be back on the rise, playing well – and their D is playing nasty. I’m seeing Carolina locking down Michael Turner and Matt Ryan not picking them apart. Game will be close and low scoring.	CAR 20-17 (Carolina outright win)
9	CIN @ PIT	PIT -6.5	PIT	PIT	FAVE	NO	Let me explain this to you. DO NOT BET ON THIS GAME. I like PITT to win at home here. I think the Bengals *can* do it, they’re playing great this year. I just don’t see it happening in Pittsburgh. And I don’t have a problem picking PITT to win at home here, I just don’t like the -6.5 so it’s NO ACTION.	PITT 27-20
10	KC @ OAK	OAK -1.5	OAK	OAK	FAVE	YES	I’m not going to talk about this game. I’d rather eat paper.	OAK 13-10
11	DAL @ GB	DAL -3.5	DAL	DAL	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Lock it up. Dallas’ D is playing well, and shut down Philly last week. Green Bay couldn’t block the Golden Girls from sacking Aaron Rodgers. I’d love to see -2.5 here instead of -3.5 on the road, but I don’t think it’ll end up mattering as Ware and company will be living in Rodgers’ lap.	DAL 30-17
12	PHI @ SD	SD -1.5	SD	SD	FAVE	NO	Another good matchup I think I’ll avoid as NO ACTION. If this game is in Philly I’d take Philly on an action pick. But with them losing at home last week and now having to travel to the West Coast, I’m thinking the Chargers can cover here at home. Philly has two defensive starters out after the Dallas game, and SD can be big and physical with their TE and WR’s all being 6’4” or bigger.	SD 24-19
13	SEA @ ARI	ARI -8.5	ARI	ARI	FAVE	YES	Some betting advice for this game. Take the over. I originally didn’t like the look of -8.5 here. But after some consideration, I think Arizona puts it on them here at home and they’re going for early nails in the NFC West’s proverbial coffin.	ARI 33-20
14	NE @ IND	IND -2.5	NE	NE	DOG	NO	I wouldn’t bet on this game if you gave me money to bet on it. I’d just keep the gift money. Juggernaut game to decide some playoff home field, and two great QB’s facing off. I think the Colts will be fine at home for a while. But, Brady and company will eventually spread the field and be fine, with the Colts having ¾ of their starting secondary out on injury. With two rookie CB’s starting for INDY, I’m seeing a lot of Moss deep, Welker short mismatches.	NE 30-27 (New England outright win)
15	BAL @ CLE	BAL -10.5	BAL	BAL	FAVE	YES	ESPN is not happy they got this Monday night matchup. More than half of America’s TV’s won’t be watching the second half of this blowout. I don’t like -10.5 on a road team. But it’s at CLEVELAND……Flacco and Ray Rice will have huge days. Brady Quinn will not.	BAL 27-10

--only taking 4 dogs this week

--differing from my norm, only 1 of those 4 dogs is a recommended NO-ACTION

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. NO – I don’t have much to say here, and I don’t see it changing this week at STL.
2. INDY – yearly event against New England. Barring a blow out I don’t see either team leaving the top 5.
3. MINN – already in my top 5, coming off of a bye, hosting Detroit. Yum yum gimme some.
4. NEW ENG – see, INDY, above.
5. PITT – gotta be in my top 5 now. Won a huge game at Denver on Monday night. Don’t let it go to your head, lose this week at home to Cinci and it’s those Bungles on this list.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. WASH – You………..are…………bad. And as Smokey would say on “Friday”, Clinton, you got knocked the F^CK OUT!
2. KC – Bad team. Bad coaching. Bad play. Now, in a purely “classy” move I haven’t decided if I agree with or not, you cut problem child Larry Johnson (probably deservedly) when he is ~85ish yards short of the franchise record for total yards. LOL.
3. DET – Had a better team beat in Seattle this past week. Then Matthew Stafford channeled his inner Mark Sanchez and matched the rookies in now both having a 5 pick game in their opening campaign.
4. OAK – You had a week off to discuss the legal fate of your coach, and work on your rookie QB. And, you get to come out of the bye hosting KC. One of you crotch stains will get a win.
5. CLEV – hosting Baltimore this week on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the old Browns, i.e. the Ravens, to win by 30. Percentage of the crowd in Cleveland in a paper bag mask? 40%

3. I think I talked about it a lot last season. But I can’t get off the subject now, not after watching all the games this past week. They have GOT TO review the roughing the passer rules again. This is tackle football people. If you can’t hit the QB, just put him in a yellow jersey and make a rule that states you can’t hit him. Some of the roughing the passer calls this past week were embarrassing that they’re considered penalties. They hit harder in women’s soccer.

4. I think I’m laughing at the Packers right now. You thought you were good. You thought had a chance at the North division. Then the Minnesota BrettFavre’s swept you. You thought you might have a shot at the wildcard. Then you went and gave Tampa their first win. You suck. And here’s why. You’ve given up 37 sacks already. Aaron Rodgers might be good. But no one gets anything done from their butt on the ground. 6 sacks and 3 picks versus Tampa? Playoffs? Playoffs? You want to talk about playoffs?
5. I think one of the league’s biggest surprises this year, to include surprising me, is Cedric Benson. Good for him. Much maligned out of Texas onto the Bears, and then onto the Bengals. He’s kept his name out of the limelight (no off the field crap, no Terrell Owens crap at practice). And all he’s done is go out and be 2^nd or 3^rd in the league in rushing thus far. And, he’s done it against the Steelers and Ravens too. Over 100+ yards twice against Baltimore. Unheard of. Good for you Ced.
6. I think the Colts need to shut the damn roof for 1:00 games. If you’ve seen either of the last two (home) games for the Colts, you’ve seen some of the worst sunlight affecting NFL games, ever. Missed passes, WR’s not even seeing the ball. It’s been little league. Shut the roof. Play football.
7. I think the NFL needs to hide the fact that the networks and money rule them, a little better. I mean, we all know it does. But hide it a little better. Don’t bend the rules so obviously. The Colt and Pats are about to meet for the 7^th straight year. They are not in the same division. The out of division, in conference, scheduling is supposed to rotational throughout the other divisions. Not 7 straight to one out of division opponent. And, they always play in the first two weeks of November. “Sweeps” weeks for the network TV wars. Shame shame NFL, for allowing the bending of the scheduling rules and TV to run your ship so blatantly.
8. I think my non-football thought of the week this week is: I have two!
1. You need to go to youtube.com and search for “New Mexico Women’s Soccer Fight BYU”. Go watch it. Trust me. Just flat amazing stuff.
2. Sammy Sosa, what…………..the…………………..f^ck? You’re looking rather Caucasian lately.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to Nate Burleson, wide receiver on the Seahawks. A couple things here. [a] you shouldn’t be looking much to celebrate in your game against Detroit, you’re playing the Lions for Chriminey’s sake. [b] you don’t get to celebrate every single catch. You’re a friggin wide receiver in the NFL. You get paid to catch the ball. A 4-yard gain on first down is not reason to dance, it’s merely 2^nd and 6. Stop dancing. Please.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to Tony Siragusa, former Raven, commentator for Fox. Speaking of the roughing the passer penalties being levied (again) this year……this week’s JSU Award goes to fat boy Siragusa. In watching the Redskins/Falcons game this past week, there was one of those “roughing the passer” calls when a Redskins’ lineman hit Matt Ryan AS HE WAS THROWING THE BALL. So it wasn’t late. It wasn’t vicious. And it wasn’t a hit led with the helmet. It was literally a plain-Jane-standard NFL hit. And they got flagged 15 yards. And fat boy Siragusa, who is only famous for two things. One, now a commentator, his sideline reviews of the stadium food selection for the city they’re in. And two, knocking Rich Gannon out of the playoffs when Tony’s Ravens knocked the Raiders out. Tony hit Rich late, led with his helmet, drove Rich into the ground and then ended with all his weight (roughly 350 pounds at playing weight?) on Rich. Tony this past weekend on the hit in question, “you can’t drive through the quarterback and put all your weight on him”. Yeah Tony, good call, you can’t. You’re famous for that, you fat piece of crap!

College Football Viewing Guide Week 11 (Full On Parity Edition)

From BCO Pix2

Some decent games, no barn burners. I'll be watching the Hokies on the interwebs ... choppy and with interruptions. Uggh, game 3 on espn360. Does the world wide leader now hate us? Battle of brands, as I and others mentioned earlier this week. I don't get too mad about it, could be worse could be uva and nike couldn't give 2 rats asses about you. I hope it is not a distraction to the team.

From BCO Pix2

The 3 games that I am interested are 'nati and their undefeated/Big East dominance run, TCU and their BCS Chanpionship Game potential buster and if doook can do the unthinkable and beat GiT and move into a tie in the ACC Coastal standings.

The Stanford - SouthernCal game could be really good as well.

No Pitt-ND game, ND can't lose to Navy at home with NFL talent littering the Offensive side of the ball and make a viewing guide. Can't happen. The Irish are losing 1, likely 2 more games. Who will be their coach next season?

On to the mini preview and picks ....

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 4-4 to date 49-31 --- 61%
against the spread 0-7-1 to date 35-44-1 --- 44%

God effing Awful. Seriously, my picks couldn't more disgusting unless I went Jimmy the Greek on you with explanation on athletes genetics.

No Thursday night game ... I can't watch RUTSgers vs Souf Florida, a trash game. The Bulls have 1 win vs a bowl eligbile team, w Fn vu, RUTSgers is ass, period. Watch only if bored.

The Games

Friday, November 13th
w effn vu (7-2) [+10] at 'nati (9-0) 8:00 pm espn2
It is Friday the 13th ... I am going against all I know is right, I am picking the neers to win. Brian Kelly (next Irish coach?) is an impressive coach and has done as good job as any coach this year or last. They have not played a hard sched, but neither has the neers. The neers can be passed on and Kelly can turn me into all Big East QB in a matter of mins. That's bad news for the cousins, but after last weeks game vs UConn, 'nati can be scored on as well. Gonna be another shootout. I can't pull for w Fn vu but if they do win, it would not bother me ... as you will see later on in the preview.

From BCO Pix2

Saturday, November 14th
GiT (9-1) [-10] at doook (5-4) noon espn
A Blue Devils win here would put the ACC Coastal in a 4 way tie. H ard to believe and must really chap some coach's ass in C-ville. Don't expect it, don't get your hopes up Hokie fans. GiT is going to run over, thru and around doook. Doook will mount a good passing attack on the vulnerable secondary of GiT but it won't be enough. They should just be happy to be better than Maryland, uva and NC State.

Florida (9-0) at Souf Kackalacki (6-4) [+16] 3:30 pm cbs
The Old ... Ole Ball Coach is hosting his alma mater and program he built once again. I wonder if he ever sits back and wonders if the Daniel $nyder cash was worth it. He could have easily just stayed in Gainesville, not leaving his office to recruit stud players and won 10 games a year. Now he forced to the 3rd tier of the $ec scraping to get 7. Even Urban has to smile at his fortune and should make him pause should he ever think about leaving UF.

From BCO Pix2

Iowa (9-1) at whatagainistheOhioState (8-2) [-13.5] 3:30 pm abc/espn
Cinderalla slipper broke right as Ricky Stanzi's ankle did, what looked like a Big1+10 Championship lock 2 weeks ago now looks like the Citrus Bowl. Left for dead, waitOSU is back, looking to take the conference championship again (reminds me of VT from last year.) The O while not all world, looks improved from a few weeks ago and the pendulum is swinging hard in the Buckeye's direction. So I hope all the Iowa fans Rocked out with their Hawks out early in the season cause it's over now. Reality is a bitch.

Stanford (6-3) [+11.5] at SouthernCal (7-2) 3:30 pm fsn
No balls ... I have no balls. I so wanted to pick Stanford last week and did not. Sigh. Another change and I pick SouthernCal. lol. It's sorta how it works, just cause team A lost to team B who beat team C, but that doesn't mean team C is going to beat team A. I think Stanford's Toby Gerhart is a stud and will get some yards but not like last week, 223 vs the Trojans. Barkely will rebound and have a good game, I expect a close one. The Pac10 is easily the deepest conference in football this year, all but Wazzou State and UCLA are at least solid.

From BCO Pix2

da U (7-2) at UNC (6-3) [+3.5] 3:30 pm abc/espn/espn-gp
UNC outside of a couple halves has played lights out defense. The kind of defense that is going to give da U problems. Believe that. Now can the slowly improving Tarheel O put enough points on the slowly degrading Canes D? This is a matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Should be an entertaining game, could go either way. Best 3:30 ACC ABC game in weeks.

From BCO Pix2

Zona (6-2) [-1] at Cal (6-3) 7:00 pm vs
Who deez teams? Wildcats under the radar all season, now that Cal has choked away the promise of a really good season it's time for them to win and look impressive doing so. One of these teams is going make a big move up, will keep my eye on this game to see how they look. I honestly don't much about 'zona, mark this down as a learning experience. Due to Jahvid Best's injury, I can't take Cal, though there is always a chance the wind blows down hill and gets the opposing team stoned.

Utah (8-1) [+17] at TCU (9-0) 7:30 p.m cbsc
I am full on the TCU bandwagon now. I want them to win out, I want 'nati and Tejas to lose and TCU to sneak in the BCS Championship backdoor. Man, that would piss off the powers that be, wouldn't it. Chaos would rule, the BCS 6 would be shaken to the core. Utah will give TCU a better game than BYU did but TCU can smell it now. This is the last true test, they will be ready. Go Horned Frogs.

From BCO Pix2

Bonus Game*
VT (6-3) at Maryland (2-7) [+17.5] 1:00 pm espn360
I think VT wins without much trouble, but picking them to cover the spread means the D has to score or set up scores. It's very possible this week as the Terps start a freshman qb, Bud eats these guys up for dinner. Wondering what the Terps strateegerie will be to stop the Hokies running game. That's always a fun chess match, isn't it? Either way, 30-40% of the stands in College Spark will be filled with Hokies with 80% of their vehicles likely to vandalized by the time the game is over. Hey Terps, basketball season is here and you should have a top 4 ACC squad again, enjoy it. Here are the true Hokie Combat uniforms.

From BCO Pix2

The regular season is starting to come to a close ... enjoy the games, hopefully the big games will be entertaining this week and not the other games, like last week. I can make 1 lock prediction ... it's a beer drinking, cornhole playing, snow crab eating weekend!

From BCO Pix2

* not included in picks

A Lil SouthernPigskin Sumthin

A short column I wrote last night for southernpigskin.com as the Steelers came back to lay it on the Broncos.

From BCO Pix2

Link here.

Writing less this year, part is the new job cropping over a hour off my day due to the commute and my new sleep schedule (in bed at 11:30 as opposed to 12:30.) Also, the dreaded Hokie malaise. Just not feeling it this year. Other than my man crush Cody Grimm and Ryan Williams, not much is getting me excited. To make matters worse, the season has been ... dreadful. Less excitement than usual, no great teams and a shit load of above avg teams. You'd think anyone winning any week would be great ... it isn't. Anyway, I need to think of other things to write about for Southernpigskin. I also am to write about Maryland and uva too but, what more can I say "They suck ass and their coaches are dead men walking?" I could skewer the Hokie offense ... but why? It's not going to get me anywhere but more pissed off.

From BCO Pix2

Anyway, the Nike vs Under Armour uniforms is bout the best thing going for this Hokies - Terps matchup. Maryland is the worst team in the ACC and to be honest, it's not close. Will be interesting to see if their ACC no. 1 rush defense is cause teams just pass at will on them or if it's legit. It's not like they won't know what's coming, Ryan Williams straight ahead. I do like the experimental, one off uniforms. I'd do away with the shoulder stripes, but I like the gradient coloring, I think the numbers look real cool.

From BCO Pix2

More info on the Nike Combat Unis by Dr. Saturday here. The link to all 10 unis here. I love mizzou's and like the f$u uniforms. I also love the whatisagaintheOhioStateUniversity pants, but I have a soft spot for ugga and tosu gray pants.

Friends of the Program has a pretty good take on it, here.

ECU Game Day

My quick thoughts of the ECU game ... all personal nothing about the game. You saw it, you read about it, uninspiring, but we'll take it. I'd have pics but the wife thought a great storage place for the camera was her car.

From BCO Pix2

• C&A Chicken and BBQ in Sunbury makes very fine eastern carolina bbq but shitty slaw. The cook, "who don't do that register thingy" had bout 25 scabs on her arms. Meth?
  
• Tailgated at a church. Paid them 10 bones and we were allowed to get drunk on the property of Jesus. Interesting.
  
• Dirt and myself lost in cornhole ... twice. One was in his late 60's, the other 60 yr old split his throws with his 8 yr old grandson. Damn. The did have a wooden statue painted and dressed as pirate with eye patch and sword. Upon further inspection, it was a Jewish wooden carving, his Jewish hat was painted purple. Weird.
• Found some big money Pirate club Donors ... well we found their unlocked car and camera phone. Seems Hank's mother-in-law now has a nice camera phone photo of a couple white asses. One cool Pirate guy, bought a used Ambulance for $3k and turned into the utlimate tailgate vehicle. Very impressed.
• ECU fans were pretty good in general, though a group of punk students fbomb chanted a couple 50ish year old Hokie fans. Unfortunately they did not do that to me when I walked up, I was ready to be more creative than "Eff the Hokies."
• Many, many fans dressed in black, looked ok. A few goons (mostly dudes in their 40's) dressed as pirates. That was fucking awful, I expected them to bust out in SpongeBob chants at anytime.
• The stadium was not loud. I've heard it louder at Dowdy-Ficklen. Was not electric either, I expected it to be rocking and have an energy about it ... it did not.
• PSA: When talking trash to an fan of your opponent, A) do not talk about his wife and B) Keep 1 eye on him at all times. One silly hokie was jawing with an older Pirate fan, the Hokie noticed the Pirate was wearing a wedding ring and commented something along the lines like this, "Oh, I see you are married, she must be ugly as shit." While laughing and not looking, he next found a right cross square on his nose. There will be blood followed as he and friend fell 2 rows forward. Once he got up, dazed he was oozing blood. Dumbass. Both got escorted out and apparently not arrested as a friend of his stayed to watch the game (friend of the year) and gave us updates as he headed to the hospital.
• Pirate logo at midfield was hot. Could not make out the helmets from our seats way up. Part of me likes the Pirate mascot the other part thinks it would get real old, real fast to just say "Arrrrghhhh" as my only chant.
• The drive out and home was an easy 2 hours, save the smell of Dirt's ass, the 15 min stop in the convenience store and the spilled beer of Hank's when he passed out all in the backseat. Saw a nice 8 point buck on the drive home, 6 feet from the road.

From BCO Pix2

That's most of it, nothing major save the getting beat down by old dudes in cornhole and the busted nose 1 row in front of me. Still got that visual, blood mixed with mucus just hanging out his nostrils.

HokieJayBee's NFL Week 9

What’s up? Week 9, NFL season 2009. Before you feel bad about your football viewership and fandom – pretend you were me, and you’re a Hokie and Redskin fan. Sad panda.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

70.00% straight up picks for your office pool (77-33)

58.33% against the spread this year on recommended plays (49-35)

53.91% over-all including the recommended no-actions (62-53)

Well this past week was the “beat Jay’s face in edition”. All those huge spreads and heavy favorites finally caught up with me, and it wasn’t a good week to ride the heavy favorites. I just couldn’t sign up for any of those big dogs (by spread) this past week and got burnt a couple times by games that were closer than they should have been.

I watched every game this past week and I was very unimpressed. Except for Minnesota/Green Bay, which was an AWESOME game, it’s like all the other games and teams knew they were second fiddle this week to Favre gate on TV. And they played like they were second fiddle. There was a lot of sloppy play throughout the league and the games weren’t that good. Especially the other 4:00 slots opposite the Vikings/Packers.

Thoughts for the past week:

*I went (8-5) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Well that sucks. You just lost your office pool to the receptionist who picks teams based on her favorite colors.

*This lovely trend continued with the books, I got hammered. Went (6-7) overall but (4-5) against the spread on the recommended picks. That’s (2-2) in NO ACTION plays. Sigh.

*I don’t like (4-5) (44.44%) on recommended plays. That’s the book taking back some of last week’s (7-2) week.

*Took some losses, but my biggest surprises were: INDY not covering SF at home, SD not covering OAK at home, and JAX not handling TENN on Vince Young’s first start this year.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning (wow)

*Drew Brees (approaching Peyton wow status)

*Carson Palmer /Tom Brady (rehabilitation wonders)

Train Watch List (could be going in either the right or wrong direction):

*New England other than Tom Brady (didn’t move either way on a bye week. Stomp Miami at home this week in division and I’m buying your train tickets)

*Joe Flacco/Baltimore (big win against Denver last week. Do it again against Cinci this week and you’re back, in my eyes)

*Pitt plays at Denver this week (winner to the good list, loser to the middle class)

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Braylen Edwards (show me the endzone against someone not named the Dolphins.)

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (debacle)

*Larry Johnson (now you’re anti-coach tweeting and slinging gay slurs. Classy. Joe Pa must be proud.)

[II] Week 9 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	BAL @ CIN	BAL -2.5	BAL	BAL	FAVE	NO	I really really really wanted to take the Bengals here at home. But I couldn’t. I think the Ravens showed some defensive fire last week against Denver, and they’re not going to get swept in division by Cinci. Will be a great game, but no who dey this week. NO ACTION.	BAL 27-23
2	MIA @ NE	NE -10.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	New England off of a bye, with a week to prepare for the wildcat, at Foxboro. Tom Brady is good. Wes Welker and Randy Moss are good. I think Miami makes this fun for a half, but can’t hang in there.	NE 34-20
3	KC @ JAC	JAC -6.5	JAC	JAC	FAVE	YES	I think Jacksonville looks to bounce back from a loss at TENN last week, and KC coming to town is just the remedy. Only thing better might be Tampa or Washington coming to town. I wish this wasn’t –6.5 and more like -2.5 – but I’m still leaning towards JAC here.	JAC 17-10
4	GB @ TB	GB -9.5	GB	GB	FAVE	YES	Speaking of Tampa. Green Bay looks to keep pace with Minnesota (or more likely the wild card chase). Tampa is just not good, and Green Bay will show it. Aaron Rodgers needs better O line play, and he’ll pick apart the Tampa secondary.	GB 27-6
5	WAS @ ATL	ATL -9.5	ATL	ATL	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Speaking of Washington. Yes, I am locking against my favorite team. Atlanta played a great game on Monday Night against the Saints, but in the end couldn’t cut it. Nothing like the Zorn-Snyder’s coming to town to get you healthy.	ATL 27-6
6	ARI @ CHI	CHI -3	ARI	ARI	DOG	NO	This looks like it could be a great game. I have these two teams pretty damn close in personal ranking. I’m taking ‘zona to outright win here with Warner being a tad better in the pressure of the 4th quarter than Cutler is. Which secondary will show up and which team will abandon the run first?	ARI 21-20 (Arizona outright win)
7	HOU @ IND	IND -8.5	IND	IND	FAVE	YES	Shoot out of the weekend. I think the Colts get their air assault back on track after a sluggish game against SF last week. Houston might make a couple waves with flashes of passing of their own, but the loss of Owen Daniels kills them here. I’d probably consider locking this one up if it were -6.5 – but I’ll still roll the Colts at -8.5.	IND 30-20
8	CAR @ NO	NO -13.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	Saints, good. Panthers, not. Saints, don’t turn it over, flourish on causing and taking advantage of opponent’s turnovers. Panthers, turn over kings. Saints big at home here.	NO 38-13
9	DET @ SEA	SEA -9.5	SEA	SEA	FAVE	YES	Another week of huge spreads. Another week of me not even flinching at the dogs. Jesus. Detroit, of having just given STL their first win (at home in Detroit), gets to go on the road to a notoriously hard place to play. Seattle looks deceivingly good here, remember it’s Detroit.	SEA 27-10
10	TEN @ SF	SF -4.5	SF	SF	FAVE	YES	San Fran played a great game but came up short at the Indianapolis Mannings last week. They get to go home and run that wicked blitz package at Vince Young all day. Chris Johnson versus Frank Gore might make this fun to watch, but SF is fine at home here.	SF 24-13
11	SD @ NYG	NYG -4.5	SD	SD	DOG	NO	Another great game. The teams that traded QB’s. Rivers for Manning. I think the game falls here to SD passing to Gates and Jackson is > NYG secondary. Me and you could pass on the Giants right now. They’re leaky. NO ACTION. I’d take SD at home for action, but fearful of the east coast trip here.	SD 24-20 (San Diego outright win)
12	DAL @ PHI	PHI -2.5	PHI	PHI	FAVE	YES	Huge game in the NFC East. Defaulting to the chalk and ~-3 you get at home. I like Philly here in a tight game in Philly. Dallas gives up too many big plays for me to like their chances to slow the game down and grind out a win. And it’s about time for a Romo implosion. It’s been a couple weeks.	PHI 27-23
13	PIT @ DEN	PIT -3.5	PIT	DEN	DOG	NO	Making this juggernaut a NO ACTION pick for me. But I can’t wait to watch it. GREAT GREAT game. Total battle for some home field advantage in the playoffs, in week 9! I have this image of a tight tight game, up and down the field. A defensive score for both teams. I see DEN covering at home, but Big Ben driving PITT for the game winning FG late.	PITT 26-24 (Pitt cover)

--only taking 3 dogs this week

-- conveniently, all 3 of those dogs are recommended NO-ACTION

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. NO – beat a good Atlanta team on MNF. Closest thing to a “scare” for the year.
2. INDY – 18-14 at home versus SF off of a bye doesn’t have you jump NO.
3. MINN – up to #3 with a big win at Green Bay this past week. Pssst, Percy Harvin is good.
4. NEW ENG – (5-2) coming out of the bye week, hosting a divisional foe. Beat them and keep rolling to a couple home playoff games.
5. PITT/DENV – these two face each other this week. In accordance with my little newsletter here, this is a HUGE game. I mean, 5^th spot on my top 5 list is at stake. Man these MNF games are well scheduled this year.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. WASH – was Daniel Snyder crying to that reporter when he was apologizing to the fans?
2. TAMPA – not even competitive in your losses. Quick, NFL fans out there, name the Tampa starting QB.
3. DET – you gave STL their first win, and put up 10 points at home. You’re not good.
4. OAK – say it with me now. Bruce Gradowski. That bundle of syllables is better than Jamarcus Russell. Face it. Cut bait.
5. CLEV/KC – these two organizations are nearing WASH level of shambles. CLEV is firing GM’s and have players speaking out against the coach. KC had a tumultuous bye week with similar player/coach issues.

3. I think the Giant’s demise recently is kind of a surprise. Atypical sloppy play from a Tom Coughlin team. And very surprising how many assignments they’re blowing in the secondary. When they were sitting at (5-0), the Giants were my number 1 team, because they were just chugging along and were winning in boring fashion. But it was their style, blah blah blah, oh look 30-6 us. Now they’re sloppy and undisciplined, and it shows in a three game losing streak.

4. I think everyone involved in Brett Favre’s NFL career over the past two seasons, is better off this season, except the Browns. Packers: they’re happy with Aaron Rodgers and are continuing to move on. Jets: they’re happy with Mark Sanchez and a new coaching staff. Vikings: duh, their QB last year was Tarvaris Jackson. Browns: unfortunately, part of the end of Favre’s career with the NYJ and the injury controversy, this might have been a catalyst/trigger for the ousting of Eric Mangini, which landed him in Cleveland.
5. I think my current Super Bowl prediction is Saints / Patriots. I think the Saints can beat the Vikings if the game is in New Orleans. And I see them over the Eagles. The AFC goes through Pittsburgh or New England, and right now currently I see NE > PITT. I also reserve the right to change my mind every week for the next 8 weeks.
6. I think I hate fantasy football this season, I’m just saying.
7. I think the schedulers for the Sunday night and Monday night games need to be commended. Minus the Eagles/Redskins a few weeks ago – these two time slots have been BEAST games all year. Well done.
8. I think my non-football thought of the week this week is that my thoughts and prayers go out to all those involved in the tragedy in Ft. Hood, Texas. Another senseless act. So sad. I truly hope that this is an isolated incident and his Muslim heritage truly is a coincidence.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to two people again.
1. Another first win for a horrible team. Another first win for a head coach. Another nonessential Gatorade bath. The Rams should be ashamed giving coach Steve a fruit drink bath. (1-7) is still (1-7).
2. Did anyone else see Miles Austin’s TD celebration for the Cowboys against the Seahawks this week? If you’re going to try and “dunk” the football on the uprights like Lebron, ensure you can actually get there. How sad to see you finger rolling it up there when you came up short.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to everyone, including me. Thank God Favre-Gate is over. Enough about it already. Ok, he was a Packer forever. Ok, he left. Ok, he plays in the same division and is fighting the Packers now. Enough. I’m glad the two MINN/GB games are done. Barring a meeting in the playoffs, this “saga” is done until next year. Since he is playing again next year right?

College Football Viewing Guide Week 10 (Exposed Edition)

From BCO Pix2

I love this new logo, very creative

As I have mentioned a time or 6, College football is having a down year, it's not as exciting. Parity is not a good thing, sure anyone can beat anyone but where is greatness? I hope this isn't a trend but the '07 and now '09 seasons are going to crown a so-so team. Last year any of the top 5 teams would have wiped the turf with this year's Florida, Bammer or Tejas. Having said that, Oregon just scored on SouthernCal again. Holy shit, batman that was a beat down that I enjoyed thoroughly!

From BCO Pix2

For whom the bell tolls?

There is only 1 marquee game this week (no Big1+10 matchup will marquee for the forseeable future.) It's LSU making a trip to the always friendly Bryant-Denny Stadium in Alabama. Bammer started out like gang busters on the Hokies but have slowly lost steam as QB McElroy has been game filmed a bit. That said Les Miles won a national championship with largelY Nick Saban's recruited talent. Now it appears Les isn't recruiting or coaching as well as ole Nick. It's a $EC West division deciding game between 2 top 10 teams (though LSU is likely a bogus one.) It's easily the game of the week.

From BCO Pix2

WhatwastheOhio State University makes a trip to Beaver Stadium to play State Penn, which could make for interesting tv as well. Oregon at Stanford, intrigues me. Will the Ducks be a lil flat? Will Stanford a very physical Pac10 team punch Oregon in the mouth and make it a slugfest or do the Ducks keep trucking looking like the best team in the nation? Klempsum at f$u will eliminate 1 from the cripple fight which is the ACC Atlantic race, making it a 2 team race with the b.c. iggles (AGAIN!)

Now to my Hokies. It's official VT has been exposed. Not only are they are not a national championship caliber team but they aren't even a college football power this season. The offense shits the bed too often, the D is soft when it matters most (4th quarter.) Big plays and running up the middle have become standard practice against Bud's unit this year (and likely next.) The O for all it's talent, still can't pass block and can't game plan what to do when there is 7-8 defenders in the box and the defensive ends stay home, making Tyrod a pocket passer. That doesn't surprise me ... not one bit. However, I never expected in the beginning of the season for the Hokies to have taken a relatively large step back on defense. They aren't trash mind you ... just sorta slightly above average. Let me try to reason why ...

• 'o8 Orion Martin > '09 Nekos Brown... Martin was better at the pass rush and run stop, had to be accounted for. Brown is drop off, making Worilds doubled every time.
• '08 DT > '09 DT ... Graves injuries doesn't help, his lack of bulk hurts and no jump fwd, if anything a slight step back. Getting railroaded lately.
• '08 Warren/Sturdivant > '09 Rivers/Johnson/Gibson ... Bud is asking the linebackers to do less, so their heads aren't swimming, that means limiting his D calls. Also physically this group might be less than last year's group. Not shedding blocks or sensing the plays like the last 5 years
• '08 Martin/Grimm > '09 Grimm ... Grimm is getting worn down. Helluva a player but he isn't super big or super athletic. Last year Cam Martin split time, letting him recharge, this season it's all on my fave Hokie.
• '08 Kam = '09 Kam ... good and bad, from game to game, series to series or play to play. He is not a FS, the team doesn't really have one, but they got 3 very good Rovers. :(

Cornerback play is as good as ever and the Rover position is solid even if unspectacular.

This in my opinion is why the Hokies D has stepped back. Expect ECU to run the middle, making the linebackers react to the read option after getting thru the DL. Then once they get use to that, ECU will change up, roll the pocket. After some of that, how bout some straight drop back passing? I gotta feeling they are gonna keep changing it up on VT.

From BCO Pix2

On to the mini preview and picks ....

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 3-5 to date 45-27 --- 63%
against the spread 2-6 to date 35-37 --- 49%

Right as I climbed over the gamblers mendoza line, I stunk it up DickRod style and fell right back. It's not gonna be my year, I fear. Will have to redeem myself during the bowl season.

Thursday, November 5th
VT (5-3) at ECU (5-3) [+13] 7:30 pm espn
Ok, let's get down to it ...

Why ECU will win

• electric crowd, itching to prove they are better than the big boys.
• big hosses up front on D to shut down the run game.
• a gameplan to attack the middle of the defense with the qb and rb's & big play wide receiver to go to when VT pinches down.
• they smell blood in the water
  

Why VT will win

• desperate wounded animal, haven't lost 3 in a row since 2003
• Ryan Williams is the best player on the field and wants to prove last week was a fluke.
• Pirates have an awful pass defense
  
• Revenge/redemption from last season's loss and this season's mini implosion.

Tough, tough game to call. VT is more talented (but not a lot more.) The atmosphere in Dowdy-Ficklen will be crazy, like in 2000, where I robbed the Professor from seeing VT hang 17 on ECU before we even got in from the tailgate. Sorry. VT has to score early a couple times to take it out of them (last 2 games, VT could not get that done and that was very costly.) The DL are going to have to play like crazed dogs, because if relying on the linebackers is and will not get it done. Going against trend, I think the VT answers the bell, I think the D plays better but not lights out and VT wins but I wouldn't bet on them covering the spread with Financial bailout money. This game could go a hundred different ways. I will get to see VT in their white throwbacks, that's the only good thing, I know for certain.

From BCO Pix2

Saturday, November 7th
uva (3-5) [+13.5] at da U (6-2) noon raycom/espn-gp
Pretty much this on the guide cause I wanted a nooner and I enjoy the algroh watch. He's gone unless his team wins out, might as well watch him stand on the sideline befuddled and angry with that hoo look on his face while you can.

From BCO Pix2

Navy (6-3) at ND [-11] (6-2) 2:30 pm nbc
Navy beat Wake without passing but then lost to Temple. Wow, not making the ACC look good here. It's not a good game, like most on the list but it's possible Navy railroads the shitty Irish D and keeps it interesting. That said, ND is going to tune up that Navy D, Clausen to Tate is good for 200 yards and 2 TD's. I know ND always plays Navy, but look at this schedule and future ones ... scheduling for success. Almost 7 gimmees each year, all fat boy needs to do is get 3 wins to go to the BCS game. Cheesy.

LSU (7-1) at bammer (8-0) [-7.5] 3:30 pm cbs
Another hated $EC rivalry that has a lil extra with Nick Satan, architect of 2 LSU National championships now doing his best to ge a statue near Bear and Gene. The Tide play has been unimpressive of late but still ticking off W's. LSU has been winning unremarkably as well, but 1 loss to UF in a game where the Tiger O was shut completely down. Look for more of the same while bammer runs considerably better vs the Tigers than Florida did. The game is about talent, discipline and coaching, a push in the former and a clear advantage in the last 2. Roll Tide Roll.

dook (5-3) [+10] at UNC (5-3) 3:30 pm espnu
The winner is bowl eligible. Doook could be bowl eligible on their 9th game of the season. DAMN! Tied for first in the loss column w/GiT in the ACC Coastal. Wow. That is over VT, da U and UNC. WOW! Doook, wins this game and it sets up next week's game vs GiT as the Coastal champion. ummmm, Wow. Butch on the other hand, finally got his program's first big ACC win at the expense of my Hokies. Can he build on it or will he do what he usually does and find a way to choke on it? That UNC D is littered with NFL players, many will be starters. You'd think they'd win ... right?

From BCO Pix2

WhatwasThe Ohio State (7-2) at State Penn (8-1) [-4] 3:30 pm abc/espn
State Penn with their 2nd hard game of the year (sorry, MissAgain does not count) vs wwtOSU and their shitty, VT impersonating O, Occasionally big timing it vs bad teams but always shitty vs good ones. More of the same, State Penn will shut it down and do just enough of offense to win by a touchdown or so. wwtOSU is lucky this is not a night game or it could have get ugly.

Oregon (7-1) [-6.5] at Stanford (5-3) 3:30 pm fsn
Will the ducks let down? Can the Ducks keep playing fast? Will Stanford be more discipline vs the power/speed/downfield spread? Can stanford bludgeon UO and shorten the game? This could end up being a UO blowout or a great game going down the wire.

From BCO Pix2

f$u (4-4) [+8.5] at Klempsum (5-3) 7:45 pm espn
Down, Up, Down, Up ... that could be described as either team's season so far. So which is it? It's like a damn coin flip. Not the greatest game but one I am curious about. DE Bowers for the Tigers is out and that's a huge loss. QB Ponder is hurting but he'll play and light the world on fire ... again. If his backup, Va Beach's own E.J. Manuel comes in, it's a huge drop off and the game could become unviewable. f$u has an atrocious D, I wonder if the announcement of DC Mickey Andrews stepping down at season's end will fire em up? They better be or C.J. Spiller could very well tune 'em up.


You may ask, what about the ABC 8 o'clock game ... well that lil 3 headed monster is ..

• UConn at 'nati 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - suck ass game
• OU at Nebraska 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - decent game but hardly worthy of the time slot.
• SouthernCal at zona state 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - same as above.

Trash games at 8, blame ABC/ESPN or the season? BCO has a date night and won't be missing not watching college ball Saturday night.

From BCO Pix2

Will see some of you in Greenville, as I do a half day, drive to the game and then drive back to work again on Friday. Lonnnng day, but tailgating and BBQ from a small but well thought of place near Sunbury will make it worth it.