HokieJayBee's NFL Week 9

What’s up? Week 9, NFL season 2009. Before you feel bad about your football viewership and fandom – pretend you were me, and you’re a Hokie and Redskin fan. Sad panda.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

70.00% straight up picks for your office pool (77-33)

58.33% against the spread this year on recommended plays (49-35)

53.91% over-all including the recommended no-actions (62-53)

Well this past week was the “beat Jay’s face in edition”. All those huge spreads and heavy favorites finally caught up with me, and it wasn’t a good week to ride the heavy favorites. I just couldn’t sign up for any of those big dogs (by spread) this past week and got burnt a couple times by games that were closer than they should have been.

I watched every game this past week and I was very unimpressed. Except for Minnesota/Green Bay, which was an AWESOME game, it’s like all the other games and teams knew they were second fiddle this week to Favre gate on TV. And they played like they were second fiddle. There was a lot of sloppy play throughout the league and the games weren’t that good. Especially the other 4:00 slots opposite the Vikings/Packers.

Thoughts for the past week:

*I went (8-5) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Well that sucks. You just lost your office pool to the receptionist who picks teams based on her favorite colors.

*This lovely trend continued with the books, I got hammered. Went (6-7) overall but (4-5) against the spread on the recommended picks. That’s (2-2) in NO ACTION plays. Sigh.

*I don’t like (4-5) (44.44%) on recommended plays. That’s the book taking back some of last week’s (7-2) week.

*Took some losses, but my biggest surprises were: INDY not covering SF at home, SD not covering OAK at home, and JAX not handling TENN on Vince Young’s first start this year.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning (wow)

*Drew Brees (approaching Peyton wow status)

*Carson Palmer /Tom Brady (rehabilitation wonders)

Train Watch List (could be going in either the right or wrong direction):

*New England other than Tom Brady (didn’t move either way on a bye week. Stomp Miami at home this week in division and I’m buying your train tickets)

*Joe Flacco/Baltimore (big win against Denver last week. Do it again against Cinci this week and you’re back, in my eyes)

*Pitt plays at Denver this week (winner to the good list, loser to the middle class)

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Braylen Edwards (show me the endzone against someone not named the Dolphins.)

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (debacle)

*Larry Johnson (now you’re anti-coach tweeting and slinging gay slurs. Classy. Joe Pa must be proud.)

[II] Week 9 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	BAL @ CIN	BAL -2.5	BAL	BAL	FAVE	NO	I really really really wanted to take the Bengals here at home. But I couldn’t. I think the Ravens showed some defensive fire last week against Denver, and they’re not going to get swept in division by Cinci. Will be a great game, but no who dey this week. NO ACTION.	BAL 27-23
2	MIA @ NE	NE -10.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	New England off of a bye, with a week to prepare for the wildcat, at Foxboro. Tom Brady is good. Wes Welker and Randy Moss are good. I think Miami makes this fun for a half, but can’t hang in there.	NE 34-20
3	KC @ JAC	JAC -6.5	JAC	JAC	FAVE	YES	I think Jacksonville looks to bounce back from a loss at TENN last week, and KC coming to town is just the remedy. Only thing better might be Tampa or Washington coming to town. I wish this wasn’t –6.5 and more like -2.5 – but I’m still leaning towards JAC here.	JAC 17-10
4	GB @ TB	GB -9.5	GB	GB	FAVE	YES	Speaking of Tampa. Green Bay looks to keep pace with Minnesota (or more likely the wild card chase). Tampa is just not good, and Green Bay will show it. Aaron Rodgers needs better O line play, and he’ll pick apart the Tampa secondary.	GB 27-6
5	WAS @ ATL	ATL -9.5	ATL	ATL	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Speaking of Washington. Yes, I am locking against my favorite team. Atlanta played a great game on Monday Night against the Saints, but in the end couldn’t cut it. Nothing like the Zorn-Snyder’s coming to town to get you healthy.	ATL 27-6
6	ARI @ CHI	CHI -3	ARI	ARI	DOG	NO	This looks like it could be a great game. I have these two teams pretty damn close in personal ranking. I’m taking ‘zona to outright win here with Warner being a tad better in the pressure of the 4th quarter than Cutler is. Which secondary will show up and which team will abandon the run first?	ARI 21-20 (Arizona outright win)
7	HOU @ IND	IND -8.5	IND	IND	FAVE	YES	Shoot out of the weekend. I think the Colts get their air assault back on track after a sluggish game against SF last week. Houston might make a couple waves with flashes of passing of their own, but the loss of Owen Daniels kills them here. I’d probably consider locking this one up if it were -6.5 – but I’ll still roll the Colts at -8.5.	IND 30-20
8	CAR @ NO	NO -13.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	Saints, good. Panthers, not. Saints, don’t turn it over, flourish on causing and taking advantage of opponent’s turnovers. Panthers, turn over kings. Saints big at home here.	NO 38-13
9	DET @ SEA	SEA -9.5	SEA	SEA	FAVE	YES	Another week of huge spreads. Another week of me not even flinching at the dogs. Jesus. Detroit, of having just given STL their first win (at home in Detroit), gets to go on the road to a notoriously hard place to play. Seattle looks deceivingly good here, remember it’s Detroit.	SEA 27-10
10	TEN @ SF	SF -4.5	SF	SF	FAVE	YES	San Fran played a great game but came up short at the Indianapolis Mannings last week. They get to go home and run that wicked blitz package at Vince Young all day. Chris Johnson versus Frank Gore might make this fun to watch, but SF is fine at home here.	SF 24-13
11	SD @ NYG	NYG -4.5	SD	SD	DOG	NO	Another great game. The teams that traded QB’s. Rivers for Manning. I think the game falls here to SD passing to Gates and Jackson is > NYG secondary. Me and you could pass on the Giants right now. They’re leaky. NO ACTION. I’d take SD at home for action, but fearful of the east coast trip here.	SD 24-20 (San Diego outright win)
12	DAL @ PHI	PHI -2.5	PHI	PHI	FAVE	YES	Huge game in the NFC East. Defaulting to the chalk and ~-3 you get at home. I like Philly here in a tight game in Philly. Dallas gives up too many big plays for me to like their chances to slow the game down and grind out a win. And it’s about time for a Romo implosion. It’s been a couple weeks.	PHI 27-23
13	PIT @ DEN	PIT -3.5	PIT	DEN	DOG	NO	Making this juggernaut a NO ACTION pick for me. But I can’t wait to watch it. GREAT GREAT game. Total battle for some home field advantage in the playoffs, in week 9! I have this image of a tight tight game, up and down the field. A defensive score for both teams. I see DEN covering at home, but Big Ben driving PITT for the game winning FG late.	PITT 26-24 (Pitt cover)

--only taking 3 dogs this week

-- conveniently, all 3 of those dogs are recommended NO-ACTION

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. NO – beat a good Atlanta team on MNF. Closest thing to a “scare” for the year.
2. INDY – 18-14 at home versus SF off of a bye doesn’t have you jump NO.
3. MINN – up to #3 with a big win at Green Bay this past week. Pssst, Percy Harvin is good.
4. NEW ENG – (5-2) coming out of the bye week, hosting a divisional foe. Beat them and keep rolling to a couple home playoff games.
5. PITT/DENV – these two face each other this week. In accordance with my little newsletter here, this is a HUGE game. I mean, 5^th spot on my top 5 list is at stake. Man these MNF games are well scheduled this year.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. WASH – was Daniel Snyder crying to that reporter when he was apologizing to the fans?
2. TAMPA – not even competitive in your losses. Quick, NFL fans out there, name the Tampa starting QB.
3. DET – you gave STL their first win, and put up 10 points at home. You’re not good.
4. OAK – say it with me now. Bruce Gradowski. That bundle of syllables is better than Jamarcus Russell. Face it. Cut bait.
5. CLEV/KC – these two organizations are nearing WASH level of shambles. CLEV is firing GM’s and have players speaking out against the coach. KC had a tumultuous bye week with similar player/coach issues.

3. I think the Giant’s demise recently is kind of a surprise. Atypical sloppy play from a Tom Coughlin team. And very surprising how many assignments they’re blowing in the secondary. When they were sitting at (5-0), the Giants were my number 1 team, because they were just chugging along and were winning in boring fashion. But it was their style, blah blah blah, oh look 30-6 us. Now they’re sloppy and undisciplined, and it shows in a three game losing streak.

4. I think everyone involved in Brett Favre’s NFL career over the past two seasons, is better off this season, except the Browns. Packers: they’re happy with Aaron Rodgers and are continuing to move on. Jets: they’re happy with Mark Sanchez and a new coaching staff. Vikings: duh, their QB last year was Tarvaris Jackson. Browns: unfortunately, part of the end of Favre’s career with the NYJ and the injury controversy, this might have been a catalyst/trigger for the ousting of Eric Mangini, which landed him in Cleveland.
5. I think my current Super Bowl prediction is Saints / Patriots. I think the Saints can beat the Vikings if the game is in New Orleans. And I see them over the Eagles. The AFC goes through Pittsburgh or New England, and right now currently I see NE > PITT. I also reserve the right to change my mind every week for the next 8 weeks.
6. I think I hate fantasy football this season, I’m just saying.
7. I think the schedulers for the Sunday night and Monday night games need to be commended. Minus the Eagles/Redskins a few weeks ago – these two time slots have been BEAST games all year. Well done.
8. I think my non-football thought of the week this week is that my thoughts and prayers go out to all those involved in the tragedy in Ft. Hood, Texas. Another senseless act. So sad. I truly hope that this is an isolated incident and his Muslim heritage truly is a coincidence.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to two people again.
1. Another first win for a horrible team. Another first win for a head coach. Another nonessential Gatorade bath. The Rams should be ashamed giving coach Steve a fruit drink bath. (1-7) is still (1-7).
2. Did anyone else see Miles Austin’s TD celebration for the Cowboys against the Seahawks this week? If you’re going to try and “dunk” the football on the uprights like Lebron, ensure you can actually get there. How sad to see you finger rolling it up there when you came up short.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to everyone, including me. Thank God Favre-Gate is over. Enough about it already. Ok, he was a Packer forever. Ok, he left. Ok, he plays in the same division and is fighting the Packers now. Enough. I’m glad the two MINN/GB games are done. Barring a meeting in the playoffs, this “saga” is done until next year. Since he is playing again next year right?

College Football Viewing Guide Week 10 (Exposed Edition)

From BCO Pix2

I love this new logo, very creative

As I have mentioned a time or 6, College football is having a down year, it's not as exciting. Parity is not a good thing, sure anyone can beat anyone but where is greatness? I hope this isn't a trend but the '07 and now '09 seasons are going to crown a so-so team. Last year any of the top 5 teams would have wiped the turf with this year's Florida, Bammer or Tejas. Having said that, Oregon just scored on SouthernCal again. Holy shit, batman that was a beat down that I enjoyed thoroughly!

From BCO Pix2

For whom the bell tolls?

There is only 1 marquee game this week (no Big1+10 matchup will marquee for the forseeable future.) It's LSU making a trip to the always friendly Bryant-Denny Stadium in Alabama. Bammer started out like gang busters on the Hokies but have slowly lost steam as QB McElroy has been game filmed a bit. That said Les Miles won a national championship with largelY Nick Saban's recruited talent. Now it appears Les isn't recruiting or coaching as well as ole Nick. It's a $EC West division deciding game between 2 top 10 teams (though LSU is likely a bogus one.) It's easily the game of the week.

From BCO Pix2

WhatwastheOhio State University makes a trip to Beaver Stadium to play State Penn, which could make for interesting tv as well. Oregon at Stanford, intrigues me. Will the Ducks be a lil flat? Will Stanford a very physical Pac10 team punch Oregon in the mouth and make it a slugfest or do the Ducks keep trucking looking like the best team in the nation? Klempsum at f$u will eliminate 1 from the cripple fight which is the ACC Atlantic race, making it a 2 team race with the b.c. iggles (AGAIN!)

Now to my Hokies. It's official VT has been exposed. Not only are they are not a national championship caliber team but they aren't even a college football power this season. The offense shits the bed too often, the D is soft when it matters most (4th quarter.) Big plays and running up the middle have become standard practice against Bud's unit this year (and likely next.) The O for all it's talent, still can't pass block and can't game plan what to do when there is 7-8 defenders in the box and the defensive ends stay home, making Tyrod a pocket passer. That doesn't surprise me ... not one bit. However, I never expected in the beginning of the season for the Hokies to have taken a relatively large step back on defense. They aren't trash mind you ... just sorta slightly above average. Let me try to reason why ...

• 'o8 Orion Martin > '09 Nekos Brown... Martin was better at the pass rush and run stop, had to be accounted for. Brown is drop off, making Worilds doubled every time.
• '08 DT > '09 DT ... Graves injuries doesn't help, his lack of bulk hurts and no jump fwd, if anything a slight step back. Getting railroaded lately.
• '08 Warren/Sturdivant > '09 Rivers/Johnson/Gibson ... Bud is asking the linebackers to do less, so their heads aren't swimming, that means limiting his D calls. Also physically this group might be less than last year's group. Not shedding blocks or sensing the plays like the last 5 years
• '08 Martin/Grimm > '09 Grimm ... Grimm is getting worn down. Helluva a player but he isn't super big or super athletic. Last year Cam Martin split time, letting him recharge, this season it's all on my fave Hokie.
• '08 Kam = '09 Kam ... good and bad, from game to game, series to series or play to play. He is not a FS, the team doesn't really have one, but they got 3 very good Rovers. :(

Cornerback play is as good as ever and the Rover position is solid even if unspectacular.

This in my opinion is why the Hokies D has stepped back. Expect ECU to run the middle, making the linebackers react to the read option after getting thru the DL. Then once they get use to that, ECU will change up, roll the pocket. After some of that, how bout some straight drop back passing? I gotta feeling they are gonna keep changing it up on VT.

From BCO Pix2

On to the mini preview and picks ....

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 3-5 to date 45-27 --- 63%
against the spread 2-6 to date 35-37 --- 49%

Right as I climbed over the gamblers mendoza line, I stunk it up DickRod style and fell right back. It's not gonna be my year, I fear. Will have to redeem myself during the bowl season.

Thursday, November 5th
VT (5-3) at ECU (5-3) [+13] 7:30 pm espn
Ok, let's get down to it ...

Why ECU will win

• electric crowd, itching to prove they are better than the big boys.
• big hosses up front on D to shut down the run game.
• a gameplan to attack the middle of the defense with the qb and rb's & big play wide receiver to go to when VT pinches down.
• they smell blood in the water
  

Why VT will win

• desperate wounded animal, haven't lost 3 in a row since 2003
• Ryan Williams is the best player on the field and wants to prove last week was a fluke.
• Pirates have an awful pass defense
  
• Revenge/redemption from last season's loss and this season's mini implosion.

Tough, tough game to call. VT is more talented (but not a lot more.) The atmosphere in Dowdy-Ficklen will be crazy, like in 2000, where I robbed the Professor from seeing VT hang 17 on ECU before we even got in from the tailgate. Sorry. VT has to score early a couple times to take it out of them (last 2 games, VT could not get that done and that was very costly.) The DL are going to have to play like crazed dogs, because if relying on the linebackers is and will not get it done. Going against trend, I think the VT answers the bell, I think the D plays better but not lights out and VT wins but I wouldn't bet on them covering the spread with Financial bailout money. This game could go a hundred different ways. I will get to see VT in their white throwbacks, that's the only good thing, I know for certain.

From BCO Pix2

Saturday, November 7th
uva (3-5) [+13.5] at da U (6-2) noon raycom/espn-gp
Pretty much this on the guide cause I wanted a nooner and I enjoy the algroh watch. He's gone unless his team wins out, might as well watch him stand on the sideline befuddled and angry with that hoo look on his face while you can.

From BCO Pix2

Navy (6-3) at ND [-11] (6-2) 2:30 pm nbc
Navy beat Wake without passing but then lost to Temple. Wow, not making the ACC look good here. It's not a good game, like most on the list but it's possible Navy railroads the shitty Irish D and keeps it interesting. That said, ND is going to tune up that Navy D, Clausen to Tate is good for 200 yards and 2 TD's. I know ND always plays Navy, but look at this schedule and future ones ... scheduling for success. Almost 7 gimmees each year, all fat boy needs to do is get 3 wins to go to the BCS game. Cheesy.

LSU (7-1) at bammer (8-0) [-7.5] 3:30 pm cbs
Another hated $EC rivalry that has a lil extra with Nick Satan, architect of 2 LSU National championships now doing his best to ge a statue near Bear and Gene. The Tide play has been unimpressive of late but still ticking off W's. LSU has been winning unremarkably as well, but 1 loss to UF in a game where the Tiger O was shut completely down. Look for more of the same while bammer runs considerably better vs the Tigers than Florida did. The game is about talent, discipline and coaching, a push in the former and a clear advantage in the last 2. Roll Tide Roll.

dook (5-3) [+10] at UNC (5-3) 3:30 pm espnu
The winner is bowl eligible. Doook could be bowl eligible on their 9th game of the season. DAMN! Tied for first in the loss column w/GiT in the ACC Coastal. Wow. That is over VT, da U and UNC. WOW! Doook, wins this game and it sets up next week's game vs GiT as the Coastal champion. ummmm, Wow. Butch on the other hand, finally got his program's first big ACC win at the expense of my Hokies. Can he build on it or will he do what he usually does and find a way to choke on it? That UNC D is littered with NFL players, many will be starters. You'd think they'd win ... right?

From BCO Pix2

WhatwasThe Ohio State (7-2) at State Penn (8-1) [-4] 3:30 pm abc/espn
State Penn with their 2nd hard game of the year (sorry, MissAgain does not count) vs wwtOSU and their shitty, VT impersonating O, Occasionally big timing it vs bad teams but always shitty vs good ones. More of the same, State Penn will shut it down and do just enough of offense to win by a touchdown or so. wwtOSU is lucky this is not a night game or it could have get ugly.

Oregon (7-1) [-6.5] at Stanford (5-3) 3:30 pm fsn
Will the ducks let down? Can the Ducks keep playing fast? Will Stanford be more discipline vs the power/speed/downfield spread? Can stanford bludgeon UO and shorten the game? This could end up being a UO blowout or a great game going down the wire.

From BCO Pix2

f$u (4-4) [+8.5] at Klempsum (5-3) 7:45 pm espn
Down, Up, Down, Up ... that could be described as either team's season so far. So which is it? It's like a damn coin flip. Not the greatest game but one I am curious about. DE Bowers for the Tigers is out and that's a huge loss. QB Ponder is hurting but he'll play and light the world on fire ... again. If his backup, Va Beach's own E.J. Manuel comes in, it's a huge drop off and the game could become unviewable. f$u has an atrocious D, I wonder if the announcement of DC Mickey Andrews stepping down at season's end will fire em up? They better be or C.J. Spiller could very well tune 'em up.


You may ask, what about the ABC 8 o'clock game ... well that lil 3 headed monster is ..

• UConn at 'nati 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - suck ass game
• OU at Nebraska 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - decent game but hardly worthy of the time slot.
• SouthernCal at zona state 8:00 pm abc/espn-gp - same as above.

Trash games at 8, blame ABC/ESPN or the season? BCO has a date night and won't be missing not watching college ball Saturday night.

From BCO Pix2

Will see some of you in Greenville, as I do a half day, drive to the game and then drive back to work again on Friday. Lonnnng day, but tailgating and BBQ from a small but well thought of place near Sunbury will make it worth it.

HokieJayBee's NFL Week 8

What’s up? Week 8, NFL season 2009. Almost half done L. Although with my Hokies falling to GT and UNC, I will admit my NFL fandom percentage has increased, despite the fact that I’m a Redskin fan. Shhhhhhh. One note: Fire Bryan Stinespring.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

71.13% straight up picks for your office pool (69-28)

60.00% against the spread this year on recommended plays (45-30)

54.90% over-all including the recommended no-actions (56-46)

Last week was the “Really?” edition with strong teams not playing the part against some weaker opponents. This week I pretty much have no complaints.

Thoughts for the past week:

*I went (9-4) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Not for the spread, missed Carolina, Atlanta, Chicago, and NYG to win. Don’t feel bad about Atlanta or Chicago as I had them to outright win as dogs. And I guess the Giants at least played a worthy opponent. But Carolina? Wow, you suck. You and Tennessee are now dead to me, I can’t hang on any longer knowing “you’re better than that, just had a rough schedule to start”.

*I did however make bank this week with the book. Went (8-5) overall but (7-2) against the spread on the recommended picks. For you mathematicians, that’s (1-3) in NO ACTION plays as well.

*This means two things. One, I’ll friggin take a (7-2) (77.78%) week every week on recommended plays. That’s good money. Two, I’m back to at least knowing which games to avoid. Or at least which games I might like a dog in, but it’s a good matchup so I’ll avoid it (chicken out).

*My two losses against the spread on recommended plays were caused by Houston going in cruise control too early against the Niners on a back-up QB, and by the Carolina Punters.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning (wow)

*Carson Palmer /Tom Brady (rehabilitation wonders)

*Steelers (this spot was the Vikings’ last week. That PITT defense is looking more like last year’s D already. One week with Troy Palomalululoulalaloumalulamoola back.)

*Saints (down 24-3 early in Miami. Psssssssssssshhhh.)

*Broncos (I admit it now. Hi, I’m HokieJayBee, and I like the Broncos. Uniforms.)

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Michael Crabtree (could be your last week on this list, drum rolllllll)

*Braylen Edwards (now the assault charges come out, lovely)

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (debacle)

*Matt Forte (no longer watch list, I sold my Forte tickets this weekend.)

*Larry Johnson (now you’re anti-coach tweeting and slinging gay slurs. Classy. Joe Pa must be proud.)

Train Watch List (could be going in either the right or wrong direction):

*Tom Brady/New England (94-7 over their last two games. Of course you can’t move onto the train list for beating two winless teams in that manner, but still….)

*Joe Flacco (we’ll see this week out of the bye with undefeated Denver in town. Beware of one Elvis Dumervil.)

[II] Week 8 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	SEA @ DAL	DAL -9.5	DAL	DAL	FAVE	YES	I don’t care about Romo and this Miles Austin guy. For Dallas opponents, I’d be more wary to see that Dallas D back and playing well. On top of that Seattle is notoriously horrible on the road, and their best O lineman is out for the year. I’m also seeing a breakout game from Jason Witten with Miles Austin getting all that attention from the safety. I would consider locking this up at -6.5, but not a lock up at -9.5.	DAL 27-16
2	HOU @ BUF	HOU -3.5	HOU	HOU	FAVE	YES	Two teams matchup here that are tough to read this year. The Bills have been playing their hearts out to try and save Dick Jauron’s job. Houston is my Jekyll and Hyde team for the year already. I’m just not seeing the Fitzpatrick led Bills scoring enough to keep up with Houston’s passing game. If Slaton doesn’t fumble, the Texans might roll big.	HOU 24-13
3	MIN @ GB	GB -3.5	MIN	MIN	DOG	NO	Great game. Favre-fest part II. At Lambeau this time. Don’t really know how I feel about this one, and I wouldn’t bet on it if I were you. I think Favre and company, getting the win in round 1 of this match in Minnesota, have less pressure to win here. I think GB is under the gun here to keep up in the division and will be tighter. I’m taking MINN to outright win on the road because the Packers still have a horrible O Line and the Vikings are still strong up front on D.	MINN 27-24 (Minnesota outright win)
4	STL @ DET	DET -3.5	DET	DET	FAVE	YES	Both these teams suck, and they’re both so littered with injuries that Vegas originally didn’t have a line out this week. I assume waiting on the status of Bulger/Stafford/Culpepper – and Calvin Johnson. Unless a solid line comes out before print time, I’m going to take Detroit at home here and take credit for a win if they win and whine about the lack of line if they lose.	DET 13-6
5	MIA @ NYJ	NYJ -3.5	MIA	MIA	DOG	NO	Another great divisional game, another chicken out. The Wildcat is in full effect, and the Jets are banged up, up front on D. The Jets have a great secondary, but Miami won’t be throwing much. And Mark Sanchez will be back home here to face a tough divisional game rather than against Oakland like last week. I see the Dolphins slowing this game down and grinding it out on the road. Either way, close game and I’m making it NO ACTION.	MIA 24-23 (Miami outright win)
6	SF @ IND	IND -12.5	IND	IND	FAVE	YES	The Colts are good. -12.5 doesn’t scare me here at home, with a West Coast team coming in on a QB switch and a banged up RB. Peyton Manning will throw for 325, 3 TD’s, no picks. Colts win.	IND 31-17
7	CLE @ CHI	CHI -13.5	CHI	CHI	FAVE	YES	How can this line be bigger than the Colt’s line? Either way I see Chicago bouncing back at home after getting smoked at Cinci last week. The Bears will be fine at home against a bad Browns team. The -13.5 worries me slightly, but I honestly can’t willingly say aloud, “I think the Browns will cover.” Because I stick to only taking 4 NO ACTION picks per week, I’m sticking action pick here with the Bears at home. This bet says more about the ineptitude of the Browns than it does about the Bears.	CHI 24-6
8	DEN @ BAL	BAL -3.5	DEN	DEN	DOG	NO	Another great great game. Despite my recent love for Denver, I can’t take them on an action pick here. With that Baltimore D coming off of a bye week, this game is going to be tight and close either way. I think Denver can win a tight game with their own big time D, but I’m still a little worried to see Kyle Orton on the road here against a tight D.	DEN 20-17 (Denver outright win)
9	JAC @ TEN	TEN -2.5	JAC	JAC	DOG	YES	When I first saw this line, I thought it was JAC -2.5, and I still was going to take the Jags. Then I noticed I read it wrong and it was TENN -2.5. Chuckle. I know TENN is coming off of a bye, but they’re in shambles. Do you think Vince Young has a decent game against JAC’s D? I don’t see them stopping Garrard and MJD enough to stay competitive, even if V Young doesn’t cost TENN the game.	JAC 20-17 (Jacksonville outright win)
10	OAK @ SD	SD -16.5	SD	SD	FAVE	YES	Wow. A 16-17 point spread in an NFL game? In a divisional game, even if it is the AFC West. And, I shy not away. San Diego rolls at home here. Oakland is bad and San Diego has to keep pace with Denver. San Diego will be focused here.	SD 27-6
11	NYG @ PHI	PHI -0.5	NYG	NYG	DOG	NO	Great game = chicken. We’ve proven that. I almost felt like tossing a coin here, but I just see the NYG going back to running, and running, and running. Philly is hurt with the lack of Brian Westbrook, so the Giants can leave an extra LB or SS in pass coverage to try and neutralize Philly’s wideouts.	NYG 24-20 (New York outright win)
12	CAR @ ARI	ARI -9.5	ARI	ARI	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Locking up the Cardinals heading back home here after a big win at the NYG last week. Carolina is on the verge of benching Jake Delhomme and I think this loss and 3 more picks will do him in. Arizona’s D is coming into last year’s playoff form and this offense has so many weapons.	ARI 27-7
13	ATL @ NO	NO -9.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	New Orleans has had some big games this year. This is their first prime time game of the year, and I don’t think they’ll disappoint. Atlanta is coming off getting smoked by Dallas and I think the Saints will try and distance themselves in the division with a statement game. With 2 starters out in the Atlanta secondary as well, I don’t see New Orleans not scoring 40,…..again.	NO 40-26

--taking 5 dogs this week

-- conveniently, 4 of those 5 dogs are recommended NO-ACTION, making all 4 NO-ACTION picks a dog, again. trend?

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. NO – I have nothing more to say than, at no point, even when I saw 24-3 Miami this week in the second quarter, did I think for one millisecond that you would lose.
2. INDY – you’re playing better than New Orleans right now, but against lesser opponents.
3. DENV – up to #3 in my top 5? Wow. From chicken to Bronco lover. Prove me right this week in Baltimore.
4. NEW ENG – I don’t know what to say here. (5-2) going into the bye week, just straight stomping mud holes in people. I’m not claiming anything Super Bowl related yet, but they sure as heck ain’t losing this division to the Jets, ‘phins, or Bills.
5. PITT – big win this week against the Vikes. That defense looks back, and looks mean. Straight into a bye week too, to get even more healthy in the secondary.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(After 7 weeks I’m able to start claiming there’s an order here.)

1. WASH – you have two more wins than some other teams in the league, but there sure as hell isn’t another organization in as bad of a place as you right now.
2. TAMPA – not even competitive in your losses. Quick, NFL fans out there, name the Tampa starting QB.
3. DET/STL – you two shitstains play this week. I guess I can move the winner off this list?
4. TENN – heading home this week after a bye, to host a divisional foe. Lose this and you’re looking at 0-16 or 1-15, fur reels.
5. CAR/OAK – I can’t decide who to put on here……I guess I’ll go with whomever benches their starting QB first. If your coach and organization are benching them and giving up, I guess I can safely list you in my bottom 5.

3. I think too much has already been made about Jeff Fisher of the Titans wearing a Peyton Manning jersey to a charity event. First, the charity event was for an organization for Tony Dungy (Peyton’s former coach), so it was at least a relevant player from another NFL team. Second, who cares? It’s a shirt. A friggin shirt. Maybe the Titan’s players offended their coach would wear the shirt of a rival quarterback should go out and earn some respect to get their own shirts worn in tribute, rather than whining about this.

4. I think sometimes you should worry less about tricking your opponents and worry more about lining up and running a play you’re good at, or have the personnel for. Bigger, better, stronger, faster. The Vikings had the ball at the Steeler 6 inch line at one point last week, 1^st and goal. And they only ran Adrian Peterson one of the three plays before kicking a field goal. Trying to run play action throws on the other two. Umm, if you’ve already conceded that you’ll kick the FG on 4^th down, no way you don’t just run the best RB in the league at the goal line three straight plays. Horrible coaching.
5. I think I have a new favorite wide receiver. Wes Welker is the definition of steady. 8-10 catches a game, maybe a touchdown here or there. EVERY week. Never hear him talk in the media. Never hear him whine. And my favorite part, he doesn’t try and break every play to the sidelines or risk going backwards to make a move. He makes the catch, finds the defender, finds the first down marker, and dives forward for that extra 3-yards, EVERY time he touches the ball. Solid.
6. I think it’s funny that when things are going well for the Bears or Giants, people love how stoic and unwavering Jay Cutler and Eli Manning look, respectively. But, when things are going bad, or more specifically when they’re running for their life with no O-line protection, those same people bitch how flabbergasted, pouty, and out of place those same QB’s look. What?!?!? That’s the same face! That’s Magnum, and Blue Steel. That’s the same face! Both these teams have bigger worries trying to stop the opposing team’s QB ripping their secondary apart than to worry about facial expressions of their QB’s in a loss.
7. I think I’d like to welcome back a couple pass catchers to league, or at least to point of their stats being meaningful at all. Welcome back, Chad Johnson (Ocho, Whatever) and Jeremy Shockey. Good to see you back in relevance.
8. I think my non-football thought of the week this week is that Major League Baseball couldn’t root for two better line-ups in their World Series. I’m not going to get into TV viewership or fan-bases or general feeling from the nation on NYY vs. PHIL – but for just two great teams with stacked line-ups meeting up – this could be a great series. Hate for either the Yanks or the Phils aside, you have to admit these two teams have a couple murderer’s rows to pitch through.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to wide receivers on both teams of the Monday Night Football game this week:
1. 2^nd year man, 2^nd round pick, Devin Thomas catches a touchdown to bring the ‘skins within 2 (or 3?) scores. Super pre-choreographed dance ensues, to include some flying-like-a-bird motion as you run off the field. Now, I almost gave you a pass, as this was your first NFL touchdown. But I can’t. The ‘skins suck, and you’re losing a game, badly, at home, on MNF. Get to the sideline and prepare for your next drive, chump. Celebrate later with your family. 2^nd round picks have more than one TD in their 23^rd NFL game.
2. The second award this week is part Jerome Bettis, part Martin Grammatica award, for celebrating and hurting yourself during said celebration. So I’m not so much saying that Deshaun Jackson didn’t deserve to celebrate his second of two long TD’s last night, as much as laughing at him straining his foot doing his TD dance. He had to leave the game for x-rays/MRI’s from the little diddy. He returned for a couple plays late in the game to test out the foot and appeared to be ok, but still funny as crap. TD dance danger level > playing NFL football danger level.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to Larry Johnson. I don’t even need to expound on this one. Long story short, frustrated player, anti-coach tweeting, gay slurs at reporters. Grow up, cock bag. Google “Larry Johnson Twitter” if you want to read more. My JSU Award this week is to Larry personally, but in a more broad sense these athletes need to be a little more careful with all the media outlets and technological advances now. Twitter/Facebook/etc. are not your friend.

Ruh-Roh

Quick Thoughts

That sucks but having seen the D get shredded all season, not that surprised. That sorta sucks, not being surprised. This actually diminishes GiT a lil. If UNC can run on tech ....

The O

• UNC played the bammer/nebraska defense with NFL quality players. This did not surprise me.
• DL 2nd only to bammer in talent though no Cody, Suh type studs.
• Carter is a freak.
• O for 2 games in a row did not take advantage of good, early field positon.
• Williams is still my boy
• Get off Randall is tons better than Tyrod Taylor. Ummm, Randall midway thru his Jr year ... was not.
• Decent receivers but a game breaker would be nice.
  

The D

• UNC's OC did an amazing job attacking Bud.
  
• Foster is trying and doing things but the team is limited.
• Nekos Brown had 1 play all night, the first one.
• The DT's are getting owned now by UNC (who has a below avg OL) bammer, Nebraska and GiT previously owned them. A trend.
• The middle linebackers are average at best, combine that with a below avg VT DL, bad news.
• Kam is not a free safety
• Corners are fine as is Cody Grimm.
• Really can't be argued, it shows week in and week out.

ECU will not be easy, I can easily see a loss here. Their OL, QB and RB will test the front 7 of the Hokies big time.

College Football Viewing Guide Week 9 (Trick & Treat Edition)

From BCO Pix2

Ah, the perils of parity, I had it wrong last week, as far this weekend being a treat viewing weekend ... only half are must see games. So there are Tricks and Treats.

First Thursday is an important day for my Hokies. Need to push thru the last lost and the mini controversy surrounding it and try to win out. Stranger things have happened than a shitty team beating a favorite denying them a conference (or national) championship berth. My favorite, P.I.T.T. beating the neers a few years back. Ok, enough of me smiling, time to wipe the field with Butch Davis. He and his teams have played Tech way too close, I need a beat down! A pic stolen off the Techsideline message boards, but here is Butch Davis coaching from his tower, taken this week. Also Orange unis ... throwbacks or new duds?

From BCO Pix2

Halloween! Trick, waiting all damn day for a game to mean something!! Treat, picture the BCO sitting Al Bundy like Saturday night about 8:30, trick or treating is done, he has a lap full of candy wrappers, Bear Republic Hop Rod Rye in 1 hand and the remote flipping from USC-UO and UT-OSU in the other. A great damn holiday!!

From BCO Pix2

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 5-3 to date 42-22 --- 66%
against the spread 5-3 to date 33-31 --- 52%

Hell yeah, finally over the gambling mendoza line, took bloody long enough, let's see if I can keep it up.

Thursday, October 29th
UNC (4-3) [+17] at VT (5-2) 7:40 pm espn
Will GiT and chopgate down VT twice? Is UNC done after tanking hard vs f$u last Thurs night? Two big questions. I think VT will come out and play hard on both sides of the ball, but I (nor is anyone else) certain until the Hokies take the field. The Butch Davis era at UNC is in serious need of a signature win (lawds, don't let it happen this week) or the questions about his coaching ability will continue to linger. These Heels are similar to the 08 Hokies, very good D, bad OL, good, not great rb's and young, talented, but clueless wr's. The difference is the Heels Qb Yates can't create positive yards or buy time with his feet when things breakdown. Until UNC (or anyone else not named bc) beats VT in Lane on Thursday night, I can't pick them.

From BCO Pix2

Side note - I had a Tarheel acquaintance who use to get give me a hard time (when drinking) always asking what a Hokie was, then laughing. Finally one day I answered, that I did not know, however I do know what a Tarheel is ... a dumb, poor muthaphucka cause he couldn't afford shoes and walks on hot asphalt. He did not laugh at my answer.


Friday, October 30th
w Fn vu (6-1) [-3] at USF (5-2) 8:00 pm espn2
A nice Friday night game, though the bloom is coming off the USF rose as teams not named f$u confuse B.J. Daniels with zones and different looks, making him look like a freshman. In a year, maybe 2 he is going to be a stud, he is built like an outside nfl linebacker and moves like ... like a basketball player (he is.) Anyway, Coach Stewie has the neers humming along, though the team is clearly better with Sr Jarrett Brown at qb and not true freshman Geno Smith (who is going to be a stud in his own right.) Either way just give it to 5'5" EZ E look (and act) alike Noel Devine and let him jitterbug his way to one fitty and 2 td's. Only P.I.T.T. and w Fn vu have a shot to beat the 'nati this season. I sure hope it's the Fighting Wanny's.

Saturday, October 31st (Halloween!)
Ole Miss (5-2) at Auburn (5-3) [+4.5] 12:21 pm espn-gp/$ec network
Ummm ... it's an early filler game. Auburn is slipping away, figured out by $EC defenses, but one has to think Auburn OC Gus Malzahn will have something for his ex boss, Houston Nutt. From their brief time together at Arkansas, things apparently did not go well between the 2. Gus (and half the state's h.s. talent) was brought in to run the spread for Nutt who gave it about 2 mins and scrapped it. Nutt did keep Gus's Wildcat formation that has spread like the H1N1 throughout college and pro football (though Houston claimed his Brother developed it, haha.) Bad feelings, inner turmoil, kid's moms got into it ... yeah, life in the $EC. Could be a slobber knocker, certainly a bitter affair.

From BCO Pix2

Kans-ass (5-2) [+7.5] at Tejas Tech (5-3) 3:30 pm abc/espn-gp
A dog game but lots of points and anything could go. Both are up and down, but the Red Raiders lost to aTm by a shit ton. DAMN. The Jayhawks aren't much better and a loss here cements ... it's BASKETBALL SEASON for the preseason no. 1 team. Mike Leach vs Mangino ... I bet those pregame talks are interesting.

Florida (7-0) vs Ugga (4-3) [+16] 3:30 pm cbs
The world's largest cocktail party better be good, cause it's unlikely to be as entertaining as the past 2 alternating beat downs. Ugga isn't good, UF isn't explosive ... both will be properly motivated, resulting in a typical $EC game ... boring and slow defensive struggle. I'd consider picking Ugga ... well no I wouldn't and even if I wanted to the refs would keep me from it. Let's be honest, Tim Tebow hasn't been that good this year and is not Heisman worthy. Anyone who thinks he can be a NFL qb, spread or traditional needs to stop doing drugs.

From BCO Pix2

da U (5-2) [-7] at Wake Forest (4-4) 3:30 pm abc/espn2/espn-gp
Game is a lot less worth watching after da U choked it vs the Tigers and Navy beat Wake Forest without attempting one pass. Think about that, Coach PJ has and he just creamed his pants. Hell, he might not half to chop block. I may watch for a bit ... but not enthused.

Tejas (7-0) at Okie State (6-1) [+9] 8:00 pm abc/espn2
Part one of the main event, Horns vs Cowboys in the house Boone Pickens built. I remember this game when Les Miles was coach and it usually still follows suite. Okie State gets up by 3-4 td's in the first half, then Tejas comes roaring back to win, sometimes by 3 sometimes by multiple TD's. Tejas has their best game of the season last week, was it due to a shitty Mizzou team or are they hitting their stride? Okie St has been under the radar since the Houston loss, if they man up here and win ... Ruh-roh.

From BCO Pix2

SouthernCal (6-1) [-4] at Oregon (6-1) 8:00 pm abc/espn2
Part 2 of the main event, no team has gotten better from week 1 to week 8 as much as the Ducks. As long as Masoli is healthy at QB, this team is gonna be a tough out, the Ducks D is the 2nd best in the Pac10, behind ... The Men of Troy reloading and still getting it done (save that 1 game against a shitty conference foe.) Last week did the team half ass it on D and let the Beavers run it up and down the field or are their chinks in the armour. Having won at USC and ND, freshman QB sensation Matt Barkley will not be afraid of the O-Zone Saturday nightBoth teams have good wins but neither has an outstanding win. Come 11:15 or Saturday, one will. Until proven otherwise, if it's a big game, I gotta take Pete Carroll's team. I really, really want to take Oregon, almost as much as Boise State.

From BCO Pix2

Yeah, I geeked out and ordered the shirt, it's pretty damn cool.


World Series
Phillies in 6, I think they have a deeper starting rotation and are basically an American league team playing in the lessor Sr circuit. They also seem to be peaking a bit better. Could be a great series.

Beer post soon, with 2 Surly reviews.

ACC Coaches Power Poll - Mid Season

Ok, let's get over the borderline illegal blocking and "the joke" that anyone would take exception to illegal shots at player's knees and ankles. I mean come on folks, a missed call is a missed call, right?

John Graves is laughing at the Chop Block, guessing he may be motivated next season by this. Sweet a bitter rivalry.

Of course not but Paul Johnson knows this, he isn't dumb. He is playing the game, outside the game ... or something like that. I mean him and all his legion of nerdy fans bitched and moaned about calls last year, so don't go all hypocrite on us Paul, though I expect most of the fans will.

Anyway, time to move past and get ready for UNC.


Ok, a lil past the halfway point, let's do the ACC Coaches Power Poll. Note this is how I think the coaches are coaching, concerning the talent they have and the consistentcy to this point in the season. What they are doing the last 4 weeks is more heavily weighted in my non-scientific opinion than what they did in the first 4 weeks. algroh approves.

Previous here.

From BCO Pix2

Coaching Power Poll

1. Paul Johnson, GiT - offense is humming along, the defense might have also turned the corner & he's more surly than ever.
2. Frank Beamer, VT - Solid job this season but the defense has taken a step & half back, the O 2 steps forward.
3. Randy Shannon, da U - 1 year away, but the offense is very good, the D needs work. Grip on 3rd is tenuous.
4. David Cutcliffe, doook - Kicking ass & taking names lately. Doing more w/less than anyone, beat GiT & the Richmond loss is a distant memory.
5. Frank Spaziani, bc - Less talent than years previous but a tough resilient team still. Good first season, gonna be there awhile.
6. Dabo Swinney, Klempsum - A much mentally tougher team than Tommy ever had. Still up n down, but improved.
7. algroh, uva - 3-1 the last 4 games, including a couple beatdowns. I hope 2 more wins keeps him in town.
8. Jim Grobe, Wake Forest - 1 step fwd, 1 step back, 1 step fwd, 1 step back .....
9. Bobby Bowden, f$u - confused to put him the Exec HC, the Asst HC or the Coach in Waiting at this spot? Dadgumit doesn't know either.
10. Butch Davis, UNC - VT had a similar team last year, very good D, shitty OL & WR's ... makes me really appreciate Frank now.
11. Tom O'Brien, NC State - shitty job this season, save the P.I.T.T. win, was Spaz the true mastermind?
12. Ralph Friedgen, Md - get that resume out, toast.

Southern Pigskin column, nothing outstanding ... mostly filler comes out soon. I might not even link it. Dang!

HokieJayBee's NFL Week 7

What the hell is up my people? Week 7, NFL season 2009. Slow down! Almost half over. Deep breath. Here’s this week’s edition. I’ll call it, the “Really?” edition.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

71.43% straight up picks for your office pool (60-24)

57.58% against the spread this year on recommended plays (38-28)

53.93% over-all including the recommended no-actions (48-41)

Last week I said, “I have never been more pissed at a decent/profitable week.” This week, I could safely say I’ve never been more pissed at team’s not playing like they should against weaker opponents. Hence, the “Really?” edition. Pittsburgh hosting Cleveland, Really? Jacksonville hosting St. Louis, Really? I even want to say Really? to the damn Jets hosting the Bills. Philly at Oakland, big ass Really?

Thoughts for the past week:

*I went (9-5) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Missed the yuck-fest coin flip KC/WASH, miss-called whether Jekyll or Hyde Houston would show up in Cinci, miss-called the league’s #1 team being NYG or NO. Not really pissed about any of those. But I am miffed about not knowing that when translated, “Mark Sanchez”, means “throw object of value to enemy” in some dialects of Spanish – stupid Jets. And Philly at Oakland, don’t even get me started.

*And I pushed this week with the book. Went (8-6) overall and (5-5) against the spread on the recommended picks. For you mathematicians, that’s (3-1) in NO ACTION plays as well.

*Means I’m still profitable for the year, but this week didn’t help a lick.

*I’m still pissed at myself a little bit. I figured Atlanta heading home would be fine against the Bears (game was in the balance until the final seconds), but I made it NO ACTION with the Bears coming off the bye. And I guess now, with a win at division rival San Diego, I can’t chicken out on my new found love, the Denver Broncos. Eddie Royal with cheese, please.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning (steady)

*Carson Palmer /Tom Brady (rehabilitation wonders)

*Vikings (against that tough Raven D, nice work. In fact, I’m going to watch you this weekend in Pittsburgh against another tough D. Favre and Peterson in person. Niiiiiiice.)

*Saints (48 on the Giants??!?!?!?)

*Broncos (I admit it now. Hi, I’m HokieJayBee, and I like the Broncos. Uniforms.)

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Michael Crabtree (got named the starter already, show me something)

*Braylen Edwards (ahhhh, welcome back Butterfinger Braylen)

*Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Jim Zorn (debacle)

*Ladainian Tomlinson. Hello? Bueller?

Train Watch List (could be going in either the right or wrong direction):

*Tom Brady/New England (59-0?!?!?!! 59? Is this Big12 football?)

*Joe Flacco (great stats, great plays, 3 game losing streak?)

Fell off the train:

*Matt Forte. Seriously WTF? Where’d you go? (oh, there you are, fumbling at the goal line)

*Larry Johnson. Grand ma ma? Hello? Larry? You still playing?

[II] Week 7 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	IND @ STL	IND -13.5	IND	IND	FAVE	YES	I was watching some NFL type show this week and there was an analyst putting the Colts on “upset alert” here. Ummmm, what? Peyton and his band of merry men, off of a bye, at a winless Rams team? With the Brick Wall Bob Sanders returning at safety? Did I miss something? Like the entire Colts team has Swine Flu?	IND 37-6
2	MIN @ PITT	PITT -4.5	PITT	MINN	DOG	NO	Wowzers. Great game. And I’ll be there. Woot for weekend travels. I’m a chicken here, for a couple of reasons. First, it’s a NO ACTION game this week. But secondly, I’m chicken to take the Vikings to win this. I want to. But I will take them with the +4.5. I think the Vikings might be Super Bowl favorites over the Saints if they throw more wide screens to Peterson. Those pinching LB’s will be the death of any defense with Rice, Harvin, and Berrian getting behind them.	PITT 27-24 (Minnesota cover)
3	NE @ TB	NE -14.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	“at Tampa” here doesn’t ring true. Isn’t this game in London? Should the NFL revisit their plan to send the “New” England “Patriots” (aka revolutionary war winners) to England for a game? I honestly think I’d still take the Pats here if the spread were -24.5.	NE 34-6
4	CHI @ CIN	CIN -1.5	CHI	CHI	DOG	NO	Hey look, another good game, another NO ACTION game. I think I might’ve just rolled with Cinci at home here, had they handled Houston last week. Now a better than Houston, Bears team comes into town. I’m seeing a hard fought battle here, and a physical game. Injuries on D eventually undo the Bengals.	CHI 24-21 (Chicago outright win)
5	SD @ KC	SD -4.5	SD	SD	FAVE	YES	San Diego gets an easy game at KC to get back on the right track. With Denver at (6-0), SD can’t afford to lose again, until Denver starts losing. I see a big bounce back game here from Rivers and the Chargers. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to keep up in a score-fest. Rivers throws for 400.	SD 24-13
6	GB @ CLE	GB -6.5	GB	GB	FAVE	YES	Green Bay gets to play Detroit, then Cleveland, in a row? So in other words, extended bye weeks. So funny to see so much bad QB play. These owners are drooling over Bradford, McCoy, Tebow……and in other news, the Browns suck.	GB 27-10
7	SF @ HOU	HOU -3.5	HOU	HOU	FAVE	YES	San Francisco might be in trouble here in their division. Arizona appears to be back, and SF has to go on the road to see if Houston is Jekyll or Hyde this week. I’m liking Houston returning home here for this matchup. News flash, Andre Johnson is good. Scary good. Houston might be a force to start reckoning with, if Steve Slaton get his fumbling under control.	HOU 27-20
8	BUF @ CAR	CAR -6.5	CAR	CAR	FAVE	YES	This line was late to come out this week with QB Edwards on Buffalo hurt. Wouldn’t have mattered, taking Carolina at home here. They appear to be “back” in a sense. And if they truly have any playoff aspirations, they can’t lose again being in the same division with the Saints and Falcons. They simplified it, hand it to D’Angelo, block, watch him run. Then fake hand it to him, watch the linebackers tackle him empty handed, throw it deep. And the Bills are horrible.	CAR 23-10
9	NYJ @ OAK	NYJ -6.5	NYJ	NYJ	FAVE	YES	This is my last offering to the Jets, to be any where near thinking they can win games. Sanchez has to stop throwing it the other team, and that defense needs to tighten up and play like they were in the first 4 weeks. Luckily for them, they get rid of the Bills’ game hangover with a trip to the Raiders. [who just beat the Iggles?] no matter. Jets will bring the whacked out blitz package and Jamarcus Russell will do his best Mark Sanchez impression from last week.	NYJ 24-13
10	ATL @ DAL	DAL -3.5	ATL	ATL	DOG	NO	I’ve got a stinkin feeling here that ATL rolls up big on Dallas. Don’t know why. Dallas D brings no fear, and their secondary is horrid. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzo have HUGE days. I’m making it a NO ACTION game with Dallas coming off of a bye. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the dirty birds, so I’ll chicken out.	ATL 27-23 (Atlanta outright win)
11	NO @ MIA	NO -6.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	Miami, and the Wildcat, and power running game will prove a worthy opponent, for a little while. They’ll try to play ball control and clock control and keep the ball away from the flying Drew Breeses. The Dolphins will keep the Saints from scoring………..48.	NO 33-20
12	ARI @ NYG	NYG -7.5	NYG	ARI	DOG	NO	Final chicken game of the week. Normally I’d jump right on NYG at home. But they just got exposed. If you just thrown all up and down the street on by the Saints, you’re not happy to see Bolding, Fitzgerald, and Breaston coming to town the following week. I think NYG pull this out, but not by more than the TD spread.	NYG 30-27 (Arizona cover)
13	PHI @ WAS	PHI -6.5	PHI	PHI	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Locking it up against the Skins here. So many variables in Philly’s favor here, including one pissed off offense after the Oakland debacle last week. Washington has a stout D and will hold Philly in the 20’s. Only problem being they won’t break 10 themselves. Week 1 of the Sherm Lewis experiment. I’m so excited……..no I’m not.	PHI 24-9

--only taking four dogs this week.

-- 4 games recommended NO-ACTION (all 4 dogs)

-- I know it looks like, and is apparently starting to ring true, that I am really a big huge chicken. Only taking 4 dogs this week, and they’re all NO ACTION? One item of defense I offer, is that I chicken out on the games before I pick my side/winner. Meaning, I scan the list of games for the week when I start to write this, and I pick the 4 games that I don’t like the matchups. I have not picked a winner at this point, or even looked at the spreads. I just pick the 4ish games that I don’t like the game and generally they stay my NO ACTION games, regardless of the spreads that I then look up. (generally these spreads are close games as I’m picking tough matchups, so the spread usually has no bearing, or not enough, to make me switch the game to an ACTION game.) That’s a long drawn out explanation to

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(Not in a hugely particular picky order.)

1. NO – smoke-waxed the NYG this week. Clear #1 to me now.
2. MINN – beat a strong BALT team this week. Keeps winning in different ways. Chance to pass NO this week if you can win at PITT.
3. INDY – some people have you at #1. I can’t on a bye week with NO and MINN beating good opponents.
4. DENV – I had them in my top 5 two weeks ago and now I don’t look chicken. Winning at San Diego, in division, with SD off of a bye. Huge win.
5. NEW ENG – many might question why no NYG in my list. Umm, they just got smoked, and NE did some smoking. Don’t hate. This spot could say NYG. 59-0 sways people ok?

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

( Again not necessarily a hugely particular order.)

1. WASH – Three words. You suck. Bad.
2. TAMPA – pick a rookie QB and let them learn from here on out.
3. DET – that win vs. WASH doesn’t keep you off the bottom 5 list anymore. NFL teams should not get shutout.
4. TENN – new comer to the list, as I kept thinking “they are the strongest winless team in the league” because of strength of scheduled opponents. Nope, you suck.
5. STL – moving down the bottom 5 list (which is moving in the right direction) with a good showing into overtime at JAX this past week, but winless is winless. Also, you get to play Peyton this week.

3. I think now it’s been two weeks, and I need to eat crow on my crow eating regarding Braylen Edwards. Couldn’t get open against a bad Bills secondary? And I know your QB had one of the worst statistical days in the history of the NFL, but you don’t give up on routes. Tisk tisk. You stepped it up for your first game as a NYJ, on Monday Night Football, but I guess that was more spotlight craving than football prowess. Show me something here Braylen, help the rookie QB out of the funk, don’t pout about it.

4. I think the Tennessee Titans had -7 yards passing in their emancipating 0-59 game at New England this week. Yes, -7, negative 7 yards passing. I had to go look up the game stats to see if I missed something, like they had 100 yards passing, but got sacked so many times for 107 yards that they had -7 yards passing, like the NFL does count sack yards differently than college I know, but maybe I missed a rule change where it would count against the ‘passing’ stats. Nope. They had two completions. One for 15 yards. And one for -22 yards. Ow.
5. I think last week I waxed poetic on the fact that there somehow aren’t 32 good quarterbacks in the world, and especially not in the league. The bad play at QB this year is amazing. Just amazing. I’m not seeing interceptions of the variety of great defensive back play, I’m seeing a ton, a TON, of picks thrown directly to guys. Just bad, bad passes. All these “great athletes” coming out of college to play QB are a joke. Gimme a not-superman-armed, but accurate, passer anyday.
6. I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are still the best team in football……..when they want to be. They don’t have that killer instinct they used to. They don’t put that nail in the coffin or put fear in their opponents like they used to. I know they won by 13 this week. But it was Cleveland. And that game got tight in the middle when Cribbs got a return back and Cleveland got the ball right back. Cleveland is horrible. The Steelers should have stomped them in division and won going away for a confidence booster game going into a game hosting undefeated Minnesota this week.
7. I think I love what I’m seeing from Brett Favre this year. Total rejuvenation. I mean, he’s like a kid out there, playing a game he loves. Did anyone else see the end of the game last week against Baltimore? When he was downtrodden because he thought the Baltimore kicker hit the game winning field goal. Only to question his teammates (Tarvaris Jackson) when they were celebrating. You could see Tarvaris say, “no, he missed it”, and Brett goes ballistic like a kid who just got his first Nintendo.
8. I think the stats of the week that I’m astonished by:
1. The Jets threw 6 interceptions this past week. Five by Mark Sanchez, and one by the field goal holder on a bad snap/hold. Peewee football stuff.
2. 6 is a funny number as well because the Redskins scored 6 points this week against the winless Chiefs. While scoring 6 points, that number was surpassed by their number of three-and-outs. Of which they had 7. Disgraceful “professional” football.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to those Kansas City Chiefs though. In your win over Washington this past week, your first, giving you a good clean record of……..(1-5)……….you gave your coach the Gatorade bath. Really? I don’t care that you were winless this year. I don’t even care that it was Coach Todd Haley’s first ever win as a head coach. You’re (1-5). You beat a worse shitty team. You don’t Gatorade bath for that. Has the Gatorade bath lost that much value?
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to a multiple time recipient of the award. Both as a player, and now as a broadcaster. Keyshawn Johnson. On Monday Night Countdown before this week’s DENV/SD game, you could be seen on ESPN dissing on WR’s and RB’s for pouting and bad attitudes on the sidelines, to include complaining to or about their coaches and playcalling. Really? Keyshawn, pot, kettle? Seriously, you, unfortunately, are not one that can diss on the current players for sideline whining or attitude. Let Ditka do that. He sits to your right. You just shut up and speak with Coach Ditka says so.

College Football Viewing Guide Week 8 (Trick Edition)

From BCO Pix2

VT's bye week could not have come on a better weekend. After a tough loss where the O and D both disappeared for a different half each, they need to regroup and push through the rest of the season. We could get a B12 South 3 team tie with 1 loss situation, but I don't think that will happen. One team is going to slip up, lawds ... please let that be GiT. Couple no VT game with not 1 marquee game this week and your Saturday is FREE. Sure there are some ok games, but none worth scheduling down time to see. Good thing, I have an outdoor chili/firepit/cornhole/beer drinking function to attend from 5pm to whenever I get forced to go home by my wiminz (I sure hope Dirt gets the Vs channel in HD.)

From BCO Pix2

This weekend I am looking for upsets, each season there seems to be 1 maybe 2 Buster Douglas weekends. I want chaos, I want the faves to eat it, specially the one from Atlanta. Now that VT is out, playing the ole, hope everyone burns now card. BYU, MissAgain, Udub and da U are the upsets that I think might happen, but I don't have the balls to pick all 4 out right, but I do for 2. This is a down year in college football, not only is parity ruling, but its' mediocre parity to boot. Who are the great teams? Hell who is the great team? Maybe Bammer, right now, that's it. A couple top teams are going to lose, but who?

From BCO Pix2

A sneak peak at Halloween weekend's games ... UNC-VT, w Fn vu-USF, World's Largest Cocktail party, Tejas-Okie St and SouthernCal-Oregon. Psst ... this means get things done this weekend, gladly hang out with the family, it's the trick matchup weekend. However next weekend lies the treat and your ass needs to be couch bound with a 24 hour virus or something.

Last week's picks and to date tally
straight up 6-2 to date 37-19 --- 66%
against the spread 5-3 to date 28-28 --- 50%

A better week for sure, looks like a typical 2008 picks week. Another and I can be over 50% against the spread for the first time since .... 2008!


This Week's Picks

Thursday, October 22nd
f$u (2-4) [+2] at UNC (4-2) 8:00pm espn
A dog game and if it weren't such a bad week of games plus it's a Thursday night tradition, it would not make the cut. Basically this game comes down to which is worse, the Nole D or the UNC O? Tough, Tough call, both are ass. UNC has no gamebreakers to speak of on O and the OL is beat up and below average. They do have solid rb's but pedestrian wr's, who actually might look great vs a bad nole secondary and simple man2man scheme. If f$u loses, they will be 2-5 and their bowl streak will likely come to an end. For that alone, it will be worth watching. Going against the flow and picking an Atlantic team over the Coastal opponent. Sorta like rubbernecking when driving past an accident ... show me CARNAGE!

From BCO Pix2

Saturday, October 24th
GiT (6-1) [-5.5] at uva (3-3) noon raycom/espn-gp
1990. That's the last time the jackets rambling wrecked outta c-ville with a win. That was the hoos best team ever, but they weren't good enough to take care of either Tech's on their schedule. After starting 0-3 and the hoos have won 3 in a row and looking like dare I say it a solid football team. They are the last undefeated team in the ACC. I hope they enjoyed first place this week, cause it's going to come to a crashing end come Saturday. I'll shit my pants if the Hoos stop the spread option while VT could not. Might be a bit of let down on O this week by GiT but they should score pretty easily. The D well, the 2nd half of the VT showed their true colors. uva will score on them, but not enough. BCO is pulling for the hoos and I don't feel dirty saying it.

Klempson (3-3) at da U (5-1) [-5.5] 3:30 pm abc/espn-gp
Left for dead like uva and Maryland (still dead) the Tigers rebounded last week by spanking another below average ACC Atlantic team, the Deacs of WF. The Klempson D is good, sometimes very good but the O ... well it's just as shitty without Tommy Bowden. Da U is cruising along, right now the faves to go the the ACCCG and smack down some shit ass Atlantic opponent. A CU win here could save their season and push them ahead as the Coastal favorites. A lot to play for game and they certainly have enough athletes to matchup with the Canes. How mature are these young Canes, can they keep focus? Will they slip up this year? This is one of those type of games. However this should be tons better than the bc-NCState abc 3:30 game of last week.

From BCO Pix2

Oregon (5-1) at Udub (3-4) [+9.5] 3:30 pm abc/espn-gp
Ever since the cold cock heard round the cfb world (5 trillion times on the ESPN family) the Ducks have weathered injuries on both sides of the ball, improved and look like bonafide Pac10 contenders. Obvious statement of the column, Coach Chip Kelly has a bright future. However, don't be fooled by the Huskies record, this is a decent football team that can pull off the upset {cough} SouthernCal {cough.} I expect a pretty decent amount of points and anytime you can watch John Locker, do it. Will Oregon be looking ahead to the Halloween home game vs SouthernCal? I think they just might.

State Penn (6-1) [-4] at MissAgain (5-2) 3:30 pm abc/espn
JoePaPa's team gets their 2nd good game of the season, 8 games in ... bout damn time. The OOC cupcakes are gone, now it's just the B1+10's cupcakes left. As much as I want the Nittany Lions to lose the Wolverine D is atrocious. I expect a fun, up n down the field game that may come down to the last few minutes. If Tate Forcier were a 100% healthy, maybe I would consider UM win. Until that D improves, I can't take them vs good competition.

From BCO Pix2

Tennysee (3-3) [+ 15.5] at bammer (7-0) 3:30pm cbs
The Vols aren't good, QB Jonathan Crompton is the Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde of QBing, but it seems they play UP for the good teams and down to the big ones (Kiffin taking after Carroll a bit.) Monte will have a good gameplan to try and take away all of the sudden Heisman candidate Tide rb, Mark Ingram. That plan is load the box and make the slowly sliding Greg McElroy beat them through the air. This is another team that Kiffin trashed in the offseason, even stealing a recruiting coordinator from Saban. Just a lil more bad blood for this +ACQ-EC feud. Can the Tide do what the Gators could not, beat down and show who is boss to Kiffin's Vols? The post game asshole handshake should be interesting to watch.

TCU (6-0) at BYU (6-1) [+ 2] 7:30 p.m. vs
ESPN's College Gameday heads to Provo, Utah for what may be the best game of the day. First, let's get it out of the way, The Fightin' Mormons can't be that good, they got handled in 6wife city by the shitty Noles back when everyone thought Dadgumit had a team. However, this is a conference game at a hard place to play with ESPN's crew in tow, so the peeps will be jacked. The Cougars will be drunk on the Book of Mormon and f-bombing in the name of Joseph Smith, Jr. TCU should be battle ready after a couple ACC wins and games like this could send them over Boise State in the computers for the Non-BCS team, bowl exception. They will be jacked and ready to play.

From BCO Pix2

Oregon State (4-2) [-20.5] at SouthernCal (5-1) 8:00pm abc/espn-gp
The 2008 team that saved the nation from a Trojan chest beating now gets their 2009 shot. This year Udub saved the nation from the pompous fans, but they had help since USC was without Matt Barkley and Taylor Mays. Barkley has come a long way and he is going to be a BEAST in 2010, believe it. However for a team with a loaded backfield and very good OL the Trojan offense (outside the ND game) hasn't been as good as expected. So was last week the break out game or Irish induced anamoly? The Beavers have the Rodgers brothers and they are a handful, for them to win 1 or both have to go off.

Parting shot, if you think your team stinks consider this updated Redskins logo .... and then realize, things aren't so bad after all, unless you are Skins fan too.

From BCO Pix2

pic stolen from the pigskin pit.