HokieJayBee's NFL Week 4

Well hai. Week 4, NFL season 2009. Here’s this week’s newsletter. Print it, fold it into 8^ths so it fits in your work shirt breast pocket, forget about it, then for today’s after lunch poop, you’ll find it and be all excited you have something to read in the john.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

62.50% straight up picks for your office pool (30-12)

52.78% against the spread this year on recommended plays (19-17)

50.00% over-all including the recommended no-actions (24-24)

Continued improvement over weeks 1 and 2, but still not up to snuff that I’d like for the year. Went 10-6 in the straight up winners. I got killed this week on a couple picks by injuries or flat out just bad play during a key play or two. I know it’s week 3, but these are professional athletes dammit.

Stayed profitable with a 9-7 week overall and 7-5 in recommended plays (going 2-2 again in the NO-ACTIONS). I’ll take 7-5 every week, as profit is profit. I was that bounce-of-the-ball or close-call away from a 9-3 week. So I’m getting warmed up.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning (4 TD’s to 4 different WR’s)

*Carson Palmer (Palmer > Roethlisberger for the first time in his career?)

*Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin

*Drew Brees (turns out he’s mortal but they still rolled in Buffalo)

*Saints as a whole onto the Train list.

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Brandon Marshall

*Michael Crabtree (I don’t even know why he’s even worthy of continued inclusion on this list, but he is just flat pissing me off)

*Clinton Portis

*Jason Campbell

*Hell, the Redskins.

Train Watch List:

*San Fran, well Mike Singletary. Have to wait another week here. Damn well played game to lose like that to Minnesota at the end. Now let’s see if they can get it done without Frank Gore for a few weeks.

*Joe Flacco. Steady. Boring. And Steady. Unfortunately you can’t jump to the yes-train after playing the Browns. We’ll see this week.

Fell off the train:

*Matt Forte. Seriously WTF? Where’d you go?

[II] Week 4 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	DET @ CHI	CHI -10.5	CHI	CHI	FAVE	YES	I’d like to welcome Detroit back to the league. Now go in-division to Chicago. I see a bounce back off of the fell-off-the-train list here for Matt Forte and I don’t see the Lions faring well against this D.	CHI 27-10
2	CIN @ CLEV	CIN -5.5	CIN	CIN	FAVE	YES	Browns suck. I think they’ll seem rejuvenated for a drive or two with Derek Anderson in there. Then they’ll remember they’re the Browns. Carson Palmer continues to build confidence here, taking them to (3-1)	CIN 24-14
3	SEA @ IND	IND -8.5	IND	IND	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	This game’s line jumped from -6.5 to -10ish, then settled at -8.5. Presumably with SEA QB Matt Hasselbeck’s ribs and his playing or not. I think this one gets ugly early and the Colts just run the clock for roughly what is known as the “2nd half”.	IND 34-13
4	NYG @ KC	NYG -8.5	NYG	NYG	FAVE	YES	Taking all the faves so far, and against some pretty big spreads……NYG stay fine here. KC isn’t looking good, at all. The Giants will smother the Chiefs on D, and then ticky tack pass their way to an easy win.	NYG 27-14
5	BAL @ NE	NE -2.5	BAL	BAL	DOG	YES	I thought this game was going to be a pick-em game, but the Pats ended up getting the -2.5 (which means the Vegas oddsmakers really see the Ravens as a -0.5 favorite but the 3 swings to NE for home field). Close, good game here, but I’m feeling the Ravens here for some reason.	BAL 26-23 (Baltimore outright win)
6	TB @ WASH	WASH -7.5	WASH	TB	DOG	YES	I think Washington gets to (2-2) here. HOW CAN YOU NOT BE (3-1) with the Rams, Lions and Bucs on the schedule?!?! Anyways, I think Washington can win this one, how Vegas gives a team -7.5 after they just lost to Detroit is beyond me.	WASH 16-13 (Tampa Bay cover)
7	TEN @ JAC	TEN -2.5	TEN	TEN	FAVE	NO	First NO-ACTION game of the week. I think (0-3) Tennessee is the better team here. I think. I just don’t like it, to try and get that first win after a bad start, on the road, in division. Not taking this game as my vote is still out on Jones-Drew as a full time back. We’ll see.	TEN 24-20
8	OAK @ HOU	HOU -9.5	HOU	HOU	FAVE	YES	Tell me now so I can bet and make some money, Texans, Jekyll or Hyde this weekend? Jamarcus Russell will see to it that there’s 3 Houston defenders with a catch. Slaton gets back on track.	HOU 27-13
9	NYJ @ NO	NO -6.5	NO	NYG	DOG	NO	Wow. Great game. Two of my top 5 teams matched up. I think the Saints win at home here, but the Jets’ D is just enough to stay within a touchdown. Making it a NO-ACTION pick because I’m just not quite sold on the Saints’ D, even against a rookie QB.	NO 27-23 (NYJ cover)
10	BUF @ MIA	BUF -2.5	BUF	BUF	FAVE	NO	This would have been an action game if Pennington were playing, with Buffalo coming to town, action *for* Miami. With Pennington out, I’m going to make it NO ACTION and lean towards Buffalo. I see a lot of wildcat from the ‘phins and their D will work to make up the ground of a learning back-up QB.	BUF 17-14
11	STL @ SF	SF -10.5	SF	SF	FAVE	YES	Almost my lock for the week. But alas, SF will be on a back-up RB with Gore out. I think STL loses more on a back-up QB to Boller, but I couldn’t lock this one up with it being over -10. The Rams are one of my worst 5 teams and don’t look to improve this week.	SF 24-9
12	DAL @ DENV	DAL -3.5	DEN	DEN	DOG	YES	Denver, at (3-0) is a home dog, to a could-be-good-but-really-inconsistent team. Dallas could be on their 3rd string RB (who is good), but he can’t be on the field EVERY play. So when he’s out of the game, assume pass, pin your ears back, and make Romo cry like the undrafted horrible QB that we all know he is.	DEN 27-24 (Denver outright win)
13	SD @ PITT	PITT -6.5	PITT	SD	DOG	NO	Ha! Another NO!!!! ACTION pick, two weeks in a row. Don’t bet on this game with borrowed money. I don’t have the gnar-gnars to take SD to win on the road here, but no matter who wins I don’t see it by -6.5. So I’m copping out, taking PITT to win at home, SD to cover, and making it a NO ACTION pick.	PITT 24-21 (SD cover)
14	GB @ MINN	MINN -2.5	MINN	MINN	FAVE	YES	WOW WOW WOW WOW, what a great MNF game. Brett Favor against the pack. Both teams doing well and fighting for the division lead. I’m going to predict a split for the season series this year for these two, and just chalk to the home team here. Minnesota weathers the anger storm of the GB defense and gives them a healthy dose of vitamin AP in the process.	MINN 27-21

--staying on my dog train again! Taking 5 dogs and 9 faves. Dogs are 2 outright wins and 3 covers.

-- 4 games recommended NO-ACTION (1 dog, 3 faves)

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:

(in no particular order, although I say (a) and (b) are equal at #1 and #2, and (c), (d), and (e) are equal at #3, #4, and #5.)

1. NYG – major injury losses on defense, no problem. Brandon Jacobs has a bad game, no problem. They’re good.
2. BALT – see above for my thoughts on steady Joe Flacco. The defense is still the Ravens. They’re good too.
3. MINN – you can’t bet against them right now. They have solid AP, apparently solid Percy Harvin, and they have “it” right now. Funny that “it” is coming from a 40-year old dude, but they have “it”.
4. NO – It’s like the old greatest show on turf in St. Louis. If they defense can hold the other team under 30, they’ll win.
5. NYJ – don’t take this to mean I’m coming around on Mark Sanchez, yet. But that D is nasty and they’re winning the close nail biters. A la PITT last year, they’ll be in every game and just need one bounce to win.

2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:

(can I put Washington 5 times?)

1. WASH – you suck. You’re bad on O. Bad. And you lost to the Lions. Their first win in 20+ games.
2. CLEV – Mangino is a butt. Brady Quinn went to Notre Dame. You’re switching QB’s and don’t have a RB.
3. STL – any chance you might have this year is now in the hands of…….Kyle Boller?
4. OAK – should be #1 on this list based on Jamarcus Russell’s play. But the D here isn’t horrible so they’re not as bad as the others here.
5. TAMPA – that’s right. Detroit isn’t even on this list. Although I think the Lions still suck, they have this little thing called hope now. And Matthew Stafford is better than any of the crap the Buccaneers are putting back there at Q. Tampa got their first first down last week at the end of the 3^rd quarter.

3. I think some teams have bad luck. Tennessee and Miami have played 3 good games and just lost by bounces or other occurrences against good teams. Tennessee lost by 7 to NYJ last week, after fumbling two returns and giving up 14 points on two roughly 10 second, 20 yard drives. If their poor return dude could hang onto the ball, they beat the Jets last week. The ‘phins just lost Pennington for the year and have 3 close losses. I feel for them. Now they got Bobby Thigpen from the Chiefs. I’m anxious to see how much Wildcat they run over the next few weeks.

4. Two words – Brett Favre. Are you serious? Sick ending to that game. Can’t believe it happened.
5. I think Arizona got pretty much blown out in their own stadium by the Colts on Sunday night. But I think that game is a whole lot different if the Cards had any sort of red zone offense. No wait, if they had any sort of don’t-turn-it-over-in-the-red-zone-offense.
6. I think this week’s Just Shut Up Award almost went to everybody. I ended up going with the one below because, as a Hokie, he holds a place in my football heart. But I almost gave it to everyone else. Please, everyone, just shut the f$ck up about the Cowboys new stadium. It’s big. It’s a $billion$. Who the f$ck cares? If I have to hear about that damn video board one more time I’m going to drive to Texas and shoot it down myself.
7. I think this is a good stat line for a WR to have for a game:

5 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD

I also think it’s funny because that’s TO’s stats for 2009. Suck it.

8. I think you shouldn’t look now, but the Patriots are 2-1, and *not* playing well. If they turn it around, AT ALL, watch out,…………again. And they’re playing phenomenal defense right now. Quick, name a New England defender. Nope, he’s on the Raiders. Nope, in the booth on NBC. Nope, in the studio on ESPN. Nope, out for the year. Ok, Wilfork, you got Vince. Other than that……it’s all Belichick.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award – Tampa Bay safety Sabby Piscitelli. First off, your name is Sabby? Secondly, when getting blown out (shut out) by the Giants, in YOUR house, there is no celebrating a tackle. None. No dancing. No hopping. There’s tackling, and returning to the huddle.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award – I think everyone, including ESPN and the people saying he re-signed with Nike, need to chill the hell out on Mike Vick. He played last Sunday. Very mundane. They eased him back into an offense that’s not only *not* his, but already on a back-up quarterback. Plus, they were playing the friggin Chiefs. Let him get his feet wet. Let him just be for a month. He’s had a hell life (self imposed I know), but he’s had a hell life for 3 years. Just shut up for a second. This whole thing with ESPN saying he re-signed with Nike, is just dragging it all through the mud, AGAIN. Because now Nike has come out and said, they didn’t re-sign him. And, sorry for Mike, they have to get on a microphone and say *WHY* they didn’t. And we all have to hear the whole story, AGAIN.