HokieJayBee's NFL Week 13

Week 13, NFL season 2009. Are we enjoying this football season? I am enjoying my weekends more than ever, but I’m not that excited any more all week. I work with too many old dudes who don’t wanna talk (argue) football.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

66.20% straight up picks for your office pool (94-48)

54.31% against the spread this year on recommended plays (63-53)

51.27% over-all including the recommended no-actions (81-77)

Thoughts for the past week:

*Another week where mid-day Sunday I felt better about my picks than they ended up. First, I can’t do math and thought all four day weekend that I covered with the OAK pick at DAL, then when I looked at it on Monday I realized DAL covered….. Then TENN went on that wacky 99 yard drive to screw me on my ZONA pick. CINCI laid an egg at home to CLEV. And Jake Delhomme out JayCutlered Mark Sanchez to screw me there.

*I went (11-5) in the straight up picks for your office pool. Might have kept you in the running. I only regret taking NE on the road at NO. Wow New Orleans, just wow.

*With the books, I stayed ok. Boo. Went (8-8) overall but (7-5) against the spread on the recommended picks. That’s (1-3) in NO ACTION plays. Which is how it should be, knowing which games to avoid.

Season 2009, Trains I’m on:

*Peyton Manning

*Drew Brees

*Brett Favre

[no wonder the league’s 3 best teams have these three guys slinging the ball]

Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:

*Jake Delhomme (you……………..suck)

*Jay Cutler (try your team’s receivers once, just once)

Season 2009, Crow to eat:

*Michael Crabtree

*Larry Johnson, 100+ yards in Cinci already?

[II] Week 13 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	NYJ @ BUF	NYJ -2.5	NYJ	NYJ	FAVE	YES	I’m liking Thursday night NFL lately…..but this week has the PAC10 Championship Oregon v Oregon State on Thursday. Needless to say Jets/Bills is not enough to get me off the college game. Resurgent Bills under Fitzpatrick not enough to overtake a Jets team with still active playoff aspirations.	NYJ 24-17
2	STL @ CHI	CHI -8.5	CHI	CHI	FAVE	YES	I can’t believe I’m taking Jay Cutler and his band of pissed off WR’s by 8.5. But I just don’t see Kyle Boller rolling into town with the nearly winless Rams and winning on the road outdoors as a dome team. I expect Olsen and Knox to have big days as Jay tries to only throw to Bears.	CHI 23-6
3	TB @ CAR	CAR -6.5	TB	TB	DOG	YES	I actually waited for this line until post time. I expected it to fluctuate downward with the news that Jake Delhomme is out. In which case I was contemplating taking the Panthers at home (well, their D at home). But it stayed up at near a TD. I’m going to try the Bucs on the road here against CAR and a back-up QB.	TB 16-13 (TB outright win)
4	HOU @ JAX	JAX -1.5	HOU	HOU	DOG	NO	I flipped the coin on this game about 12 times. Both of these teams are really Jekyll and Hyde all year. If Houston could play 2 straight games or even 4 straight quarters, they’d be pushing INDY for the division. Jacksonville is nearly as dynamic. Mathematically, practically speaking, the winner of this game is still in the wildcard hunt and the loser is out. So neither team should give a lackluster effort. Taking HOU on the road here in a NO ACTION pick. Tough game.	HOU 24-17 (Houston outright win)
5	DEN @ KC	DEN -4.5	DEN	DEN	FAVE	YES	Denver was the toast of the NFL at (6-0) under Kyle Orton and Josh McDaniel. Then, reality struck and the Broncos didn’t look that good. Their D wasn’t as dominant and they were falling. Last week they handled the NYG at home and look to stay back on track at KC this week. KC got slaughtered by SD last week and Matt Cassell just isn’t the same without Mr. Belichick.	DEN 23-16
6	TENN @ INDY	INDY -6.5	INDY	INDY	FAVE	YES	All week I’ve been thinking about this game. Can TENN stay on this playoff run win streak? Is VY for real? What’s with INDY losing every game into the 4th quarter and then deciding to turn it on and win? Will Coach Fisher wear a Peyton jersey to the game? And all week I’ve been telling myself I think INDY wins but TENN keeps it close and probably covers the -6.5. Then I started typing up this document. INDY will be fine.	INDY 30-17
7	PHI @ ATL	PHI -5.5	PHI	PHI	FAVE	YES	Game will be overshadowed by MVick’s return to ATL. I’m anxious to hear the welcoming committee of thousands at the game. Oh, yeah, and there’s a game going on with big playoff implications. Game probably looked a lot better on paper before Matt Ryan hurt his foot and will be out. I think I would’ve taken Philly on the road here, even prior to the knowledge of Ryan’s injury. Now I take them to cover -5.5 on the road no problem.	PHI 27-19
8	NO @ WASH	NO -9.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	I was talking with a friend all week about this game. We were talking about how the Saints blew out NE at home. And they’ve been blowing everyone out. And they haven’t really had a letdown game yet this year. And how WASH hangs tighter with everyone they’re not supposed to. And how WASH was gonna cover this game as NO had their “letdown” game but still won. We were talking all week about taking WASH plus the +14.5 they were gonna get. Then it came out at NO -9.5. Dammit.	NO 31-20
9	OAK @ PITT	PITT -14.5	PITT	PITT	FAVE	YES	Pittsburgh wins this game if you or I are their QB, so Dixon or Big Ben will be fine. I don’t like the -14.5 but I have a nasty feeling the Steelers will be out to prove to the world that everything is fine in that locker room after concussion-gate. To cover the -14.5, I basically feel PITT’s O needs to score 20.5 points, because OAK will be lucky to have 6 of their own.	PITT 24-6
10	DET @ CIN	CIN -12.5	CIN	CIN	FAVE	YES [LOCK]	Another AFC North squad at home against a horrible opponent, favored by ~2 TD’s. Another game HJB takes the favorite. All the numbers and spread sheets I run for NFL games/picks (you should see them, I’m a nerd), say that CINCI isn’t that overwhelming of a home favorite here. But, they do scream that DET *is* that much of a road dog this year. Alas….	CIN 27-9
11	SD @ CLEV	SD -12.5	SD	SD	FAVE	YES	One of my top 5 teams against one of my bottom 5 teams. Hm? This would have been my lock matchup over CINCI if SD was at home here. But I’ve got to think the trip East will hurt the Chargers a little bit right? Rivers and LT continue their onslaught on O, and the SD D seems to be back. Brady Quinn and company don’t scare me much against that -12.5.	SD 27-10
12	DAL @ NYG	DAL -2.5	NYG	NYG	DOG	NO	I’m chickening out to make this game a NO ACTION pick. Everything about this game says Dallas, except my gut. Tom Coughlin will have his guys ready, and Giants’ stadium isn’t exactly an easy place to play for NFC East opponents. I’ve just got a feeling about telling the Giants a division foe will come to their house and be favored.	NYG 24-21 (New York outright win)
13	SF @ SEA	SEA -1.5	SF	SF	DOG	NO	Seattle always wins at home. Except against San Fran, who has so little travel and no time zone switch I guess it just doesn’t matter as much. The numbers still want to favor SEA at home here, but I’m going gut again and making this dog pick a NO ACTION pick as well. San Fran will control with a short passing game and will try to bottle up the new guy Forsett.	SF 23-17 (San Fran outright win)
14	MINN @ ARI	MINN -5.5	MINN	MINN	FAVE	NO	I’m confused by this line. The numbers say MINN by 7. But the line opened and hovered around MINN by 4 all week. Then once the news become more “official” that Warner was to play for ZONA, the line leveled back to MINN -5.5. Both of those movements in the sequence are backwards to what I would think. Was the money in Vegas holding off for the line? Were the casinos assuming Warner out? It’s just backwards so I don’t like the line. Someone out there knows something I don’t. I think MINN covers but I don’t like this game, NO ACTION.	MINN 30-20
15	NE @ MIA	NE -3.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	I have 5 words for your betting advice. These 5 words are all you have to know on where to put your money this week. “THE PATRIOTS LOST LAST WEEK.”	NE 30-17
16	BALT @ GB	GB -3.5	BALT	BALT	DOG	YES	Green Bay has improved their record recently by protecting Aaron Rodgers. Now their left tackle is hurt again and they are welcoming the Baltimore Raven D into town. This game has big playoff implications for both teams. I see a low scoring affair here with the defenses having better nights than the offenses. I definitely like BALT to cover here with the +3.5, but I’m also taking them to win.	BALT 27-24 (Baltimore outright win)

--only taking 5 dogs this week

--and 3 of the 4 recommended NO-ACTION games are dogs

--maybe funny to only me, but all 5 dogs I’m taking this week, I’m not just taking them to cover, but to outright win. That would be odd if it happens to all 5.

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:
1. MINN/INDY/NO – Pick one. Bet on them to win. Win money. Rinse, repeat.
2. See (a.)
3. See (a.)
4. CINCI – In control of the AFC North after going (6-0) in division. Would have to fall flat on your face to lose a playoff bye, let alone a divisional home game.
5. SD – Welcome to the top 5. Peaked way earlier this year than normal. Normally you make a late-save-Norv’s-job run but miss the playoffs. This year you’re in control of your own destiny.
2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:
1. CLEV – I don’t know what to say here. You’re bad. And I don’t see that changing against SD this week.
2. KC – Matt Cassell treated the ball like it had herpes last week. Ummm, Matt, you want to hold onto that thing a little better.
3. CHI – Until Jay Cutler gets something fixed in the head, his strong arm is a useless appendage.
4. STL – Even as I wanted to take you off this list, there’s that guy again, Kyle Boller.
5. OAK – Bruce Gradkowski does not remove you from consideration on this list.
3. I think I have the coolest wife. I was watching New England at New Orleans with her this past Monday night. And in the second half, when New Orleans went on that scoring binge of 3 (4?) straight scoring drives of less than 90 seconds, in the 3^rd quarter. She looked at me shaking her head at Drew Brees’ work and said only two words, “at will”.
4. I think my wife is right. When the Saints are on, they’re sick. I cannot wait for MINN vs NO this January. Guaranteed to be in a dome. The new greatest show(s) on turf in a battle royale.
5. I think I’ve said it before, but I have to reiterate. How bad is the normal QB play in the NFL nowadays??!?!?!? How can there not be 32 good QB candidates on the earth? These guys are millionaires: Brady Quinn/Derek Anderson, Jamarcus Russell/Bruce Gradkowski, Jake Delhomme, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Boller…….shall I go on?
6. I think to add to my point in #5, there’s an interesting read on ESPN[dot]come right now. Written by the missing link from humans to aliens himself, John Clayton. Meep meep. You can’t tell me he doesn’t remind you of the alien that Bugs Bunny always fought. Meep meep. Anyways, he broke down “good” and “bad” QB’s in the NFL. “Good” starting QB’s are like 70% winners [they play each other sometimes], and those same “good” QB’s are 80% winners when they play against “bad” QB’s. Staggering numbers. I mean, there’s NO parity. Look at the records of Manning/Favre/Brees against say Quinn/Boller/Russell. Not hard science.
7. I think I’m really truly torn on the NFL’s concussion issue(s) right now. Football is a man’s sport, it’s violent, they don’t hide this. Every play, every player is WILLINGLY risking life and limb. And they make millions and MILLIONS of dollars to play a GAME. Are they “our” pawns enough that we could demand more of them? Is the huge gorilla in the corner the fact that Hines Ward was right about Ben Roethlisberger? No one wants to talk about it, because it’s the current hot issue, and perhaps Hines should have never gone public with it, but was he right? Did Ben pansy out of the biggest game of the PITT season so far under a condition that *normally* NFL players have played with, to include Ben himself in the past.
8. I think this week’s non-NFL note has to be about Tiger Woods. OMGWTFBBQ Tiger? I mean, you’ve got to hide that crap better than that. I mean. Umm, you’re a horrible guy. I will say, in the most respectable way possible: I don’t understand why these young stud athletes, with millions of dollars and fame and fortune, constantly on the road, get married so young. I’m not suggesting they should all be Wilt Chamberlain and all, but I don’t get why they marry so young in their situations.
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to Kelley Washington of the Baltimore Ravens. In last Sunday’s game against the Steelers, you had a 15-yard catch for a first down on Baltimore’s first drive (your only catch on the night). Note, you have 27 catches all year, roughly 2 Wes Welker games’ worth. On this 15 yard catch for a first down, one would have thought you just made Santonio Holmes’ Super Bowl winning catch based on your celebration. Actually, I think Santonio celebrated less in the Super Bowl. Get back to the huddle and act like an adult. Maybe they’ll throw you the ball more.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to Hines Ward. Wait, wait, wait, now I know this differs from my sentiment in #6 above. I’m not going to wax poetic anymore on what I think about NFL players playing with concussions. But I will say to Mr. Ward. Shut the hell up (to reporters). There are some things better left unsaid (to reporters). If you need to have a team meeting, or a sit-down with Big Ben, do so. But shut up when you’re dealing with the media frenzy that is 2009 all-access-reporting-on-everything.