HokieJayBee's NFL Week 14

Week 14, NFL season 2009. This is my recovery week after getting hammer-dog-punched last week. And it’s my, I’m on work travel so it’s short, week.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

65.19% straight up picks for your office pool (103-55)

53.12% against the spread this year on recommended plays (68-60)

50.00% over-all including the recommended no-actions (87-87)

Thoughts for the past week:

*Last week sucked. None of the big dogs covered. In fact, some of them lost. Even the good teams that beat up on bad teams didn’t cover. Cinci/Detroit for example: Cinci was never in jeopardy of losing this game, Detroit had no chance. But Cinci “only” won by 10.

*I went (9-7) in the straight up picks for your office pool. You got hammered too if you copied me. You lost to that guy in accounting that picked teams based on where he has family living throughout the country. “I have an aunt that lives in Oakland, they can probably beat Pittsburgh”. Last Friday you’re laughing at his idiocy. This Tuesday he’s taking the pool money.

*With the books, I just flat out got Munson-ed. (6-10) against the spread this week. Ouch. Just….ouch. I cherish the (1-3) in NO ACTION picks this week because it brings the week to (5-7) against the spread. I apologize for these numbers. I’m embarrassed.

[II] Week 14 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	PITT @ CLE	PITT -9.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	NO	Work travel caused this missed game pick. And I’m not going to lie to you; I probably would have taken the Steelers to bounce back after losing to Oakland last week. So it’s NO ACTION by luck.	N/A
2	NO @ ATL	NO -10.5	NO	NO	FAVE	YES	The Saints and coach Sean Payton have already come out and said they’re going to play hard, play the starters, and go for undefeated. This aids my efforts as a game picker guy. I think this game was circled as a stronger test on the road in the division before Matt Ryan and maybe still Michael Turner were banged up.	NO 30-16
3	DEN @ INDY	INDY -6.5	INDY	INDY	FAVE	YES	And immediately on to the anti-Saints, the undefeated until we feel like resting our guys Colts. I think mathematically this is the last or second-to-last week they have to try. I think they can take next week off if the Bengals lose and/or Chargers lose this week. Note this pick is based on my thinking that the Colts are playing for real for real.	INDY 30-20
4	SEA @ HOU	HOU -6.5	HOU	SEA	DOG	YES	If I had gotten in my PITT/CLEV pick in, in time, this probably would have been my 4th NO ACTION pick for the week. Two reasons, [1] HOU and JAX are my NO ACTION kings anyways, [2] SEA on the road is a crapshoot too. I’m seeing a late score by Seattle for a backdoor cover.	HOU 23-20 (Seattle cover)
5	CAR @ NE	NE -13.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	-13.5 for a team coming off two losses? I mean, the Patriots win here no problem, but -13.5? I guess heading home after those losses and the other team’s QB is out, I can’t argue with Vegas.	NE 38-16
6	BUF @ KC	PICK’EM	BUF	BUF	DOG	YES	Wait, this is a real NFL game? It will be on TV? Even Vegas took the game off and just said F*ck It, pick’em.	BUF 14-10
7	DET @ BALT	BALT -13.5	BALT	BALT	FAVE	YES	Baltimore will have many points more than Detroit.	BALT 33-10
8	CIN @ MINN	MINN -6.5	MINN	CIN	DOG	NO	I’m a chicken, NO ACTION. Game of the week, with a lot of playoff implications in both conferences. Cinci is approaching securing 2nd place in the conference behind INDY for home games in January. Minnesota is coming off a loss at Arizona and needs this win to get confidence back and to add another nail in the GB coffin.	MINN 27-23 (Cincinnati cover)
9	NYJ @ TB	NYJ -2.5	NYJ	NYJ	FAVE	YES	I wish I was still checking lines on Tuesday morning’s and throwing large sums of money on lines that open wrong. This line opened at TB -3. The money has moved it to NYJ -2.5. Wow. Jets win easily here, maintaining their playoff hopes.	NYJ 24-13
10	STL @ TENN	TENN -12.5	TENN	TENN	FAVE	YES	Don’t know what to think of this game. I think TENN has a little “it’s just the Rams” hangover, as well as some let down since their little win streak is over. But, I have to say, it’s just the Rams.	TENN 27-10
11	MIA @ JAX	JAX -2.5	MIA	MIA	DOG	NO	Why can’t JAX and HOU play each other every week in an unpickable game? Oh, this is close enough. NO ACTION for me. I think the ‘phins on the road here, as they still have playoff dreams too. And they’re getting 2.5 points.	MIA 20-16 (Miami outright win)
12	GB @ CHI	GB -3.5	GB	GB	FAVE	YES	GB got a big win on MNF, following MINNY’s loss last week. This is a big game for GB’s season. Especially if this is played with the knowledge of a MINNY slip up to CINCI. Oh, and Jay Cutler is Chicago’s QB.	GB 24-16
13	WASH @ OAK	WASH -0.5	WASH	WASH	FAVE	YES	The well played 57 minutes that the Redskins had against Dallas, Philadelphia, and New Orleans were great, but they are not as important to Jim Zorn’s career as this game. You have to go win on the road against a team you can beat. Career game for Zorn this week, seriously	WASH 17-13
14	SD @ DAL	DAL -2.5	SD	SD	DOG	NO	It’s December. Means two things outside of holiday stuff. San Diego is winning. Dallas is losing. Going NO ACTION here because I’m hoping it’s not my heart wanting Dallas to lose more than my head says they will.	SD 27-23 (SD outright win)
15	PHI @ NYG	NYG -1.5	PHI	PHI	DOG	YES	It was this game or SD/DAL getting a NO ACTION pick. So this one is action on Philly to take it on the road. NYG played well last week and can really shake up the division with a win. But, I see Philly trying to pull away here and run with the division. Especially if DAL falls to SD.	PHI 27-23 (Philly outright win)
16	ARI @ SF	ARI -3.5	ARI	SF	DOG	YES	Another great primetime game. I think an Arizona win here closes that divisional race. They should win, and their now annual find-a-defense-in December train should win. I’m taking SF to cover as it’s a cold/windy low scoring affair.	ARI 20-17 (SF cover)

--holy crap I’m taking 7 dogs [and CLE already won as one]. Parity schmarity?

--and the other 3 remaining NO ACTION games are dogs too.

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:
1. INDY – Enough losing into the 4^th quarter. Ended Vince Young’s little comeback tour this past week. Look to me to be the strongest team right now.
2. NO – Only #2 here because you’re still technically undefeated. But it took a gift wrap from the Deadskins to make it happen.
3. CINCI – List shake-up. Not a wholly impressive win over lowly Detroit this past week, but you’ve got a helluva easy schedule remaining and look to be sitting pretty for the other AFC bye in the playoffs.
4. SD – Like I said last week, peaked way earlier this year than normal. Might have a dog fight on your hands with Denver, but I think you prevail.
5. ARIZ/MINN – List shake-up again. Just like last year, Arizona peaks at the end of the season when they find that other unit, the “defense”. Minnesota’s effort worried me here. Arizona punched them in the mouth and Minnesota responded like a submissive puppy.
2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:
1. CLEV – Brady Quinn showed flashes of brilliance against the 4^th string SD defense who went into prevent-mode in the middle of the 3^rd quarter.
2. KC – No offensive identity. Looked like a team who hadn’t practiced together before.
3. STL – Most pissed off man in America, Steven Jackson. Draft him some blockers.
4. WASH – If these games were 57 minutes long instead of 60, you’re going to the playoffs.
5. DET – you’ve got to protect Matthew Stafford better or you’ll living on this list for years to come.
3. I think I watched the single worst officiated game I’ve ever watched on Monday night. It seemed to me the referees were determined to get on TV. They were calling pass interference penalties for nothing. I think there were literally seven or eight called for the game. That’s just ridiculous.
4. I think I admit I’m rooting for the Colts and Saints to make the Super Bowl, undefeated vs. undefeated. Then we can stop hearing year and year about Mercury Morris and the Dolphins keeping their champagne on ice. I’m not a Dolphin hater per se; I’m just tired of hearing about the infamous champagne. I mean, it can’t be that good of champagne anyways, seeing Mercury on the Just For Men commercials and all.
5. I think Jon Gruden is the best football commentator right now. ESPN did well to lock him up and keep him off the sidelines for a few more years.
6. I think if I wasn’t in Canada this week I could have made it to the Redskin’s tryout to be their kicker. I think I could make a 23 yarder.
7. I think I know I’m biased, but that was awesome to see this past week what the Eagles did [and let Vick do] at Atlanta. Good for Michael and good for the Eagles to help it along. Michael probably needed a good game and a hug after all this.
8. I think my write up this week is lacking, and I’m ok with it. I have spent the week outside of Toronto on a job site. It’s cold. -8 Celsius cold. And it’s snowing, sideways. And my hotel has intermittent interwebs. I’m going to have another Molsen before bed and this writeup is short, eh?
9. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to Leron Landry of the Redskins. You were having a pretty good game bottling up the Saints. I probably wouldn’t have considered you for the JBAward this week, but the repetitive celebrations you took on yourself just seemed kind of ironic as Robert Meacham ran behind you for the game tying score in the 4^th quarter. Save all the celebrating for when you have more than 3 wins.
10. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to the media. Tiger Woods y’all, it’s all good y’all. Really though, tired of hearing about it. Shut up.