HokieJayBee's NFL Week 15

Week 15, NFL season 2009. This is where I do my Stuart Scott imitation (not a lazy eye joke). I mean, BOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. ‘twas a good week in the picks.

[I] 2009 Season Stats

Season Totals:

67.63% straight up picks for your office pool (117-56)

55.00% against the spread this year on recommended plays (77-63)

51.85% over-all including the recommended no-actions (98-91)

Thoughts for the past week:

*Last week was good. Missed picks included not guessing correctly whether Houston would be Jekyll or Hyde this week, a 0.5 point miss on the Pats, the Vikings bouncing back stronger than I thought, and the Falcons sans Ryan and Turner hanging around stronger than I thought they could with the Saints.

*I went (14-1) in the straight up picks for your office pool. You won your pool. Arizona/SF was a tough pick, other than that, you won your pool.

*With the books, I got to play the man this week in the relationship. I went (11-4) overall and (9-3) on recommended action picks. Seattle and Cinci failed as dog covers for me, and New England and New Orleans failed as favorite covers for me.

[II] Week 15 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table

GAME		LINE	OFFICE POOL WINNER	SPREAD WINNER	FAVE OR DOG?	ACTION?	HEART / COMMENT	PREDICTED SCORE
1	INDY @ JAX	INDY -2.5	INDY	INDY	FAVE	NO	I’m making this a NO ACTION pick, as I admit to having about equivalent to absolutely zero read on the efforts the Colts are going to put out. Combined with JAX’s efforts as they’re still technically not mathematically out of the playoffs. Going to NO ACTION take INDY to win and cover for one more week I guess.	INDY 24-16
2	DAL @ NO	NO -7.5	NO	NO	FAVE	NO	Vegas puts out the perfect spread here. -7.5. Damn. I think New Orleans wins without problem. They’ll stay undefeated and Dallas can’t win in any months after November ends. But -7.5, that’s perfect. NO ACTION for me, I can see a late Dallas meaningless score to make it 30-23 instead of 30-16. Dallas sucks late in the year, but they typically don’t get blown out.	NO 30-16
3	NE @ BUFF	NE -6.5	NE	NE	FAVE	YES	New England got back on track last week winning over Carolina. There are some side stories this week in the news surrounding Randy Moss. Blah blah blah, nothing new there. He’s a high maintenance receiver having a bad day. I think Belichick and Brady have this offense ready and well tuned to show everyone they’re fine. They need this game too, it’s not just pride. They need to stay ahead of NYJ and MIA.	NE 30-17
4	ARI @ DET	ARI -11.5	ARI	ARI	FAVE	YES	Man, I don’t like an Arizona team coming off of a bad 7-turnover loss, staying on the road and heading east, to be favored by -11.5. But, alas, they are playing the Lions, eh? Hightower and Wells both have good games as the Cards play big brother this week.	ARI 24-10
5	MIA @ TENN	TENN -3.5	MIA	MIA	DOG	NO	Going to chicken out here, as I would have been putting my money on Chad Henne, and go NO ACTION. I think MIA and their playoff aspirations have them playing well here on the road, and come out with a close win. Contain Johnson at RB and I think the ‘phins can win on the road here.	MIA 24-21 (Miami outright win)
6	CLE @ KC	KC -1.5	CLE	CLE	DOG	YES	This week’s versions of something I won’t watch. Even with the NFL ticket, I’ll be skipping over this game in the game mix. I’d rather watch paint dry. Resurgent Cleveland D will be this week’s beneficiary of Matt Cassell’s misunderstanding of the importance of keeping the ball.	CLE 16-10 (Cleveland outright win)
7	HOU @ STL	HOU -12.5	HOU	HOU	FAVE	YES	It’s well known that Houston is a Jekyll and Hyde team to bet on, and one of my favorite NO ACTION picks. But they are at the Rams, who just got blown out 47-7 and they’re starting a rookie QB who’s college QB coach is…………Ryan Leaf. Yeah, *that* Ryan Leaf. When you’re done chewing that up and laughing, HOU is an easy pick here, even with the -12.5.	HOU 27-7
8	ATL @ NYJ	NYJ -6.5	NYJ	NYJ	FAVE	YES	When I first saw this line, I circled ATL to lose but cover the +6.5. They played a great game last week at home trying to derail the Saints. But that was in-division, at home. This week, without a 100% Ryan or Turner, they’re heading outside, up north, to a NYJ team with their own playoff aspirations.	NYJ 27-17
9	SF @ PHI	PHI -8.5	PHI	SF	DOG	YES	Philly wins here, no problem at home, but I don’t like the -8.5. Mike Singletary’s guys are also fighting for their playoff lives, and they rarely get blown out. Even with the West à East travel here, +8.5 is a lot of points, and I like the SF defensive line lately. They brought havoc to ‘zona’s backfield last week and will do some of the same to Philly this week.	PHI 27-20 (SF cover)
10	GB @ PITT	PITT -1.5	GB	GB	DOG	YES	Almost a NO ACTION pick for me this week. But I kept action on here with Troy still out for PITT. They’re just a different team without him. Also note that GB might get 7 or 8 sacks this week. PITT is toast, even with a little locker room in-fighting about quitting to boot.	GB 24-20 (GB outright win)
11	CHI @ BALT	BALT -10.5	BALT	BALT	FAVE	YES	I don’t know what’s worse. The fact that the Bears were once a playoff looking team and now they go on the road to an AFC borderline playoff team and become -10.5 point dogs? Or the fact that I didn’t blink at all at the -10.5 line and I’m action here on Baltimore at home?	BALT 27-13
12	OAK @ DEN	DEN -13.5	DEN	DEN	FAVE	YES	This rivalry probably has a better pedigree and history than this year’s version in Denver is going to offer. Taking the snaps for Oakland will be the $32 man Jamarcus Russell, or Charlie Frye. Yeah, from Akron? Brandon Marshall begins his quest to break his own receiving record against a team in full free fall.	DEN 30-10
13	CIN @ SD	SD -6.5	SD	CIN	DOG	NO	Rarely do I view the week’s game schedule and circle a game on first glance with such NO ACTION verve, than for this game. If Dallas doesn’t show up at all in New Orleans, this one here is clearly the game of the week (might be anyways). Looking forward to watching this one to find out who will truly challenge INDY for the AFC crown. I think SD wins at home, but I don’t like the -6.5.	SD 23-20 (Cincinnati cover)
14	TB @ SEA	SEA -6.5	SEA	SEA	FAVE	YES	Seattle at home against lesser to equal opponents is nearly lock-able betting. Tampa Bay is conveniently a lesser opponent.	SEA 20-10
15	MIN @ CAR	MIN -8.5	MIN	MIN	FAVE	YES	I originally thought that -8.5 was a little high considering how well Carolina hung with New England last week. Then I remembered Minnesota is better than New Enland.	MIN 33-17
16	NYG @ WASH	NYG -3.5	NYG	NYG	FAVE	YES	I want to take the ‘skins here. I want to take them to continue their streak of playing well against better opponents. But NYG is thick in the playoff hunt. And, they’ll be playing on Monday night with full knowledge of both Dallas’ and Philly’s outcomes from Sunday. Washington will keep it close for a while and can score (read, NYG can’t tackle), but Eli and the Giants pull away for a > 3.5 point win.	NYG 27-20

--taking 5 dogs this week, nothing shocking.

--2 of the NO ACTION picks are dogs, chickening out on the MIA@TENN and CIN@SD covers

[III] 10 or so things I think I think.

1. I think these are my top 5 teams right now:
1. NO – Lock up home field throughout the playoffs with a win this week. And, potentially greatly affect the NFC playoff picture if you do knock off Dallas.
2. INDY – hopping down to #2 with the guarantee that your starters will be resting. Especially in this short week with a Thursday game, you might take a loss at Jacksonville.
3. SD – watch out. No one wants to play the Chargers right now. They were meddling around 0.500 at the beginning of the season while they figured some stuff out. Consider them done figuring.
4. MINN –Back into a more solidified spot on the list. Beat a good Cinci team last week and I think are a game away from locking up a bye and home field (except for @ NO for the NFC CG).
5. PHI – This pick was going to be a split between ARIZ/PHI. As a tossup between the two, who actually battled in last year’s NFC CG. Then Arizona played dropsies with the ball on MNF this week. Philly’s spot it is.
2. I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:
1. OAK – You beat the Eagles and Steelers, and get just about blown out by the Redskins? Back to the top of this list for that loss, and mainly because Gradkowski is hurt and that Jamarcus Russell guy might be playing again.
2. KC – Is there a Lemon Law in the NFL? I mean a Matt Cassell Purchaser Protection Plan?
3. STL – I mean, you have to at least try.
4. TB – That momentary blip off my bottom 5 team radar was an oversight.
5. DET – if Kevin Smith is out at RB, you are in big big big trouble against guaranteed blitz packages. Don’t hurry back Matthew Stafford, it could hurt.
3. I think how the Colts play out the end of their stellar regular seasons is wrong, for many reasons. First, I’m against resting the players for *this* long. If the starters truly do sit starting this week, they’ll have a near-month of rust to get off in the playoffs. That’s too long. Second, Jacksonville is still technically in the playoff hunt and from the speeches from the Colts coaches and executives, Indy could be seen as handing Jacksonville the win this week. It almost rings of collusion when Jacksonville is getting a freebie while their other playoff contenders might have a real opponent. I guess we’ll see this Thursday night.
4. I think they’ll be some fun off-season QB decisions for some teams. And I don’t just mean the good draft class (Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, Clausen, Locker?). That there Mike Vick guy might be playing himself into a more lucrative contract outside of Philly. Did you all see that 30-yard-bullet he threw in the first half Sunday night? Best throw he’s made in a long time (no pun, best throw in a long time for obvious reasons).
5. I think the league’s statistical #1 defense is Green Bay. I think Pittsburgh can’t protect Ben Roethlisberger, nor run the ball effectively. I think these two teams play this week. Rut-roh.
6. I think there’s a lot of prior-Superbowl winning head coaches out there, currently not coaching. Many of them are in the booth or on camera somewhere still, and can’t get away from the game. There are some bad bad teams in the NFL. Get out your checkbooks, owners.
7. I think this just sounds funny to say, in a Bad-News-Bears-kind-of-way. The Oakland Raiders, after losing starting quarterback Brad Gradkowski for the season, have to revert back to former starter Jamarcus Russell. In addition, for depth, they have signed former Buffalo quarterback J.P. Losman. Anyone else get the feeling the word “quarterback” here is a term used loosely?
8. I think I remember previous years it was more like 10 teams in each conference fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. This year, parity schmarity. In each conference, the playoffs are almost set, in week 14.
9. I think my non-football thought for the week is: Holy Trade Activity in Major League Baseball, Batman.
10. This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to Nnamdi Asomugha and Rocky McIntosh, opposing defensive players in the Oakland/Washington game this past week. In the waning minutes of the 34-13 meaningless game, you both earned your Jerome Bettis stripes. “meaningless game” = it was 34-13, over by score:time remaining ratio, and between two teams mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. On the Redskins’ last possession, Asomugha made a good flip-causing tackle on the ball carrier, only to dance and strut around and let everyone know how good he is. Good enough to keep his team within 21 points is good enough for dancing I guess. On the ensuing drive, the Raider’s last possession, Rocky McIntosh did the same, celebrating a hard tackle at the end of a meaningless drive and meaningless game. Only this time, you were also celebrating a hit that injured the Raider. Class people, have some.
11. This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to Roy Williams of the Cowboys. First, you nearly land on the Jerome Bettis Award list almost every week. Stop acting like a fool after each catch, and I hate to break it to you, but every time you miss a ball it isn’t pass interference. Second, Shut Up. If any of you haven’t heard, Roy put the Saints on notice this week. And spouted off a bunch of other [what I deem over-]confident ramblings about beating them this week and then again in the playoffs. For one, you’re on the Cowboys, and it’s December, you ain’t winning. Second, don’t talk trash to the 900-lb gorilla team. Idiot.