Well hero. Week 3, NFL season 2009. One eighth of the NFL season is gone. Sad panda. What a great week of games in college and the pros. Either way, here’s this week’s newsletter.
[I] 2009 Season Stats
Season Totals:
62.50% straight up picks for your office pool (20-12)
50.00% against the spread this year on recommended plays (12-12)
37.50% over-all including the recommended no-actions (15-17)
Well…………..a big improvement over week 1, but still not up to snuff that I’d like for the year. I see a turn around coming here in weeks 3 and 4. Went 8-8 in the straight up winners. That surprised me. You woulda got stomped in your office pools. I did take a lot of dogs (to cover) last week and did well on them. The problem was I was *too* right. And many of them outright won. So I won the bet on the spread but lost the winner in the straight up.
Improved with a 9-7 week overall and 7-5 in recommended plays (going 2-2 in the NO-ACTIONS). I’ll take 7-5 every week, as profit is profit. But I look to be better than that. I want to be > 60% on the year on recommended plays. I mean, I want to be > 75% truthfully, but I’d take > 60% and consider talking my lady into letting me gamble heavily again.
Week 2 Random Thoughts:
*Boy was I wrong on Houston’s offense. Maybe game 1 they just ran into that there new fangled Jets defense and weren’t prepared for the complicated blitz pick-ups. See: Patriots week 2. God that O looked horrible, just like the Texans did in week 1. Kudos to Rex Ryan.
*In a related story. Someone file a missing persons report for one Randy Moss. The Jets had you in single coverage all day as they sent 6 or 7 into Brady, all day. Get open, slacker. Darrelle Revis is good, but not *that* good, not shut you down for 60 minutes good. You never got behind him, not once?
*Can you think of time where you remember ever hearing of QB’s breaking ribs? Now we’ve got two high profile ones, both former Pro-Bowlers, both having been to a Super Bowl, both breaking ribs while running and diving into the endzone. Note to self for the 30 other QB’s out there with intact ribs – slide. Or give the ball to a player more accustomed to running and taking a hit.
*Two words, Drew Brees. Wow, just wow.
*Other holy shitters for the week, Chris Johnson (Titans) and Frank Gore. Nicely done fellas.
Season 2009, Trains I’m on:
*Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning are still good, had rough week 1’s with both of their #2 WR’s going down. Boldin should be fine, Gonzalez might be out a while. (Week 3 update - See! They’re fine.)
*Carson Palmer is back? (Week 3 update – See!)
*AP is still a stud (Week 3 update – can’t go wrong.)
*Drew Brees (Week 3 update – Wow, just wow.)
Season 2009, Trains I’m not on:
*Brandon Marshall, although his inclusion on this list could be saying more about Kyle Orton than about Brandon. (Week 3 update – nope, it’s about Brandon. Orton and the Broncs are 2-0. You’re pouting on the sideline.)
*Michael Crabtree, seriously? This cat needs some Mike Singletary in his life. He was one of my favorite college players last year. (Week 3 update – and now a scandal, your agent already talking to other teams? Loser.)
*Maurice Jones-Drew, jury is still out. I just don’t like him for 16 games without Fred Taylor. (Week 3 update – Looking like a solid no-train pick thus far.)
*Michael Turner and Clinton Portis (Week 3 update – this one will have to see as the year goes on, as it’s based on age and carries last year)
*Jason Campbell. Don’t know if this is coaches’ playcalling or Jason’s ineptitude, but they were horrible to watch. (Week 3 update – I’m a Redskin fan. And they are HORRIBLE TO WATCH. Jason and the whole O. I’d rather read a science book.)
Train Watch List:
*San Fran, well Mike Singletary. (Week 3 update – they go and win in Minny this week? I’m on the train.)
*Cadillac Williams? Bionic knee and all. (Week 3 update – he’s getting ready to be on the good list.)
*Saints, can’t get a read after just two games, we’ll know this week at Buffalo if I’m officially on the train. (Week 3 update – wow, just wow.)
*Joe Flacco. Steady. Boring. And Steady. (and selling me tickets for the train!)
Fell off the train:
*the iggles. I know McNabb was hurt. But he doesn’t play D. Actually apparently no one does for your team.
*Matt Forte. Another needed filing for a missing person’s report.
[II] Week 2 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table
| GAME | LINE | OFFICE POOL WINNER | SPREAD WINNER | FAVE OR DOG? | ACTION? | HEART / COMMENT | PREDICTED SCORE |
| 1 | WAS @ DET | WAS -4.5 | WAS | WAS | FAVE | YES | I’m a Redskin fan, and I don’t like this game at all. AT ALL. Detroit is going to get off the schnide sometime soon, right? After the way the Redskins offense played last week hosting the Rams, I just see a bounce back here and a TD win. Don’t know why, I just think Detroit would have had a better chance if the Redskins rolled last week and came in cockier. They’re coming in knowing they have work to do. | WAS 24-17 |
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| 2 | GB @ STL | GB -6.5 | GB | GB | FAVE | YES | Again, read the above write up for WAS/DET. Same logic here only it’s GB over STL. I just don’t see GB going to (1-2) and I don’t see them letting STL stay close. Aaron Rodgers and the GB offense have this last chance to even let me think they have a shot at not being 3rd in their division. | GB 24-10 |
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| 3 | SF @ MIN | MIN -7 | MIN | SF | DOG | YES | Wow, great game. I like MINN to win at home here, but I don’t like the -7. SF will continue to grind it out as they have been and stay close but MINN will win at home. Peterson might be a little banged up, but Chester Taylor is the best back-up in the league (maybe Sproles). | MINN 24-20 (SF cover) |
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| 4 | ATL @ NE | NE -4.5 | ATL | ATL | DOG | YES | I’m jumping ship on the Patriots here, or do I love Matt Ryan? I don’t know, the clique pick by the network pundits was SF over MINN, with this a close second. I just don’t see the New England offense on par yet, and Welker hurt is KILLING THEM! Atlanta to outright win here in a good game. | ATL 20-17 (ATL outright win) |
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| 5 | TEN @ NYJ | NYJ -2.5 | TENN | TENN | DOG | NO | I don’t know about this one, so it’s no-action. I think the NYJ are on the way up, and I’m loving the Rex Ryan defense. I just don’t see Tennessee going to (0-3). I just don’t see it. I think this is a boring game to watch with both defenses playing great. In a close game at the end, veteran Kerry Collins > Mark Sanchez. | TENN 13-10 (TENN outright win) |
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| 6 | KC @ PHI | PHI -8.5 | PHI | PHI | FAVE | YES | McNabb is out. Westbrook is doubtful. Desaun Jackson is doubtful. The Eagles got all blowed out by the Saints last week. Eagles roll. Chiefs bad. | PHI 33-13 |
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| 7 | NYG @ TB | NYG -7.5 | NYG | NYG | FAVE | YES | NYG is good. They look real good on all cylinders. Tampa will probably not get embarrassed, if being a >7 point dog in your own house isn’t embarrassing….but NYG wins handily here. | NYG 27-16 |
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| 8 | CLE @ BAL | BAL -13.5 | BAL | BAL | FAVE | YES [LOCK] | Yes, I’m locking a two touchdown favorite. Baltimore just looks killer on D again, and Cleveland just looks silly on defense. I haven’t decided that when the cameras catch Brady Quinn crying this Sunday if I’ll feel bad or not. | BAL 37-9 |
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| 9 | JAX @ HOU | HOU -4 | HOU | HOU | FAVE | YES | Ok, Houston is going to be my 2009 version of 2008 San Diego and Carolina. Poo one week, GREAT the next. I like them to stay hot at home here. They just torched a TENN team with a better secondary than the Jags have. Just ask 24-26 Kurt Warner. Andre Johnson is a manbeast. | HOU 30-17 |
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| 10 | NO @ BUF | NO -5.5 | NO | NO | FAVE | NO | I want to just ride the Saints’ train, but I fear a let down here. Not let down like they lose, just a let down in that they’ll only score 38 this week. I think BUFF is much improved and a fluke fumble away from being (2-0). But I think the Saints’ are still too much for the Bills’ D. I’m making it no-action because I fear my love for one Drew Brees is clouding my head. | NO 38-24 |
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| 11 | CHI @ SEA | CHI -1.5 | CHI | CHI | FAVE | YES | Almost my lock with Hasselbeck out for the ‘hawks. But hard to lock a road team. I think Chicago finally gets healthy on the running game this week, just ask Frank Gore last week. Forte and Cutler start to get on track with a Seattle team down, to include their defense watching Seneca Wallace suck on O. | CHI 30-13 |
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| 12 | MIA @ SD | SD -6.5 | SD | MIA | DOG | NO | I will say this as clear as possible. DO NOT BET ON THIS GAME. I guess SD wins at home here with the ‘phins heading all the way west? But -6.5? With LT still hobbled? | SD 27-24 (MIA cover) |
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| 13 | PIT @ CIN | PIT -4.5 | CIN | CIN | DOG | NO | I will say this clearer than the SD / MIA game. DO NOT BET ON THIS GAME. Not even with borrowed money. This could be a HUGE shake-up, and I have an eerie feeling the Bengals can do it here at home. | CIN 24-23 (CIN outright win) |
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| 14 | DEN @ OAK | OAK -1.5 | DEN | DEN | DOG | YES | Oakland is favored here???!?!!?!? I know it’s an AFC West divisional game. I know they’re at home. But, but, but…..Denver is fine here. They’re D is much improved and Jamarcus Russell is, well, not much improved. | DEN 24-17 (DEN outright win) |
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| 15 | IND @ ARI | ARI -1.5 | ARI | ARI | FAVE | YES | OOOOH, another great game this week. I think Arizona is fine here at home, with INDY having the short week too after MNF. Great game up and down the field, but Arizona ends up winning on the ground. Great game for fantasy players too! | ARI 30-24 |
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| 16 | CAR @ DAL | DAL -9 | DAL | CAR | DOG | YES | I have two pretty strong forces in my head right now. Well, three, but saying I’m a ‘skin fan and I hate Dallas doesn’t help a newsletter like this. (1) I don’t think Carolina goes to (0-3). But (2) I don’t think Dallas goes to (1-2) and (0-2) in their new house. Either way, I think Carolina stays within 9. They’re better that that. Right? Battle of the pick-offs with Delhomme vs. Homo. I mean Romo. | DAL 27-23 (CAR cover) |
--staying on my dog train again! Taking 7 dogs and 9 faves. And 4 of them to not only cover but outright win.
-- 4 games recommended NO-ACTION (3 dogs, 1 fave)
[III] 10 or so things I think I think.
- I think I’m sticking to my guns about Week 1 hyperbole. Like, no, Jay Cutler won’t throw 64 interceptions, and no, Drew Brees won’t throw 96 touchdowns. And, yes, the Rams will score at some point. Etc. But how funny is it that the two teams I used for my anti-hyperbole sentiment gone and done blowed it up again. Man the Saints and Jets looked good, again, and this time against good teams. You know when the Super Bowl is Saints/Jets this year I’m going to point back to my Week 2 newsletter, analysis of Week 1, and take credit for calling it.
- I think these are my top 5 teams right now (no computer rankings, offensive or defensive stats, whatever). Just my top 5 teams the way I see it.
- NYG – Hey Jerry Jones, nice new stadium. You’re (0-1) in it.
- Atlanta – beat a very good Miami team and a struggling-but-will-be-better Carolina team, we’ll know for sure this week at New England.
- NYJ – That defense looks good. Looks mean. Looks like the old Raven defenses. Hey wait a minute…..
- New Orleans – had to hold judgment after stomping a mud-hole in Detroit. Now they stomped a mud-hole in a good Philly team.
- San Francisco or Baltimore here – Mike Singletary appears to be a phenomenal coach/motivator. He’s going to win a lot of close games in this league, whether his team is talented or not. Baltimore probably can’t get on the list, even with a win this week against lowly Cleveland.
- You’ll note I didn’t include the 2-0 Minnesota Petersons on here. I’m reserving judgment on them thus far, as they’ve only beaten Cox High School and Mary Washington College. I mean the Lions and Browns.
- Baltimore/SF/Minnesota – someone will be on the list this week. SF is playing MINN, and I don’t see ATL and NYJ both winning….sooooooo.
- I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now.
- Detroit – you’re #1 on this list until you win a game. I hope it’s not this week against my ‘skins – but please don’t go 0fer again.
- Cleveland – there are a lot of offended poops out there since they’re associated with you being the Browns. Brady Quinn throws like a girl.
- St. Louis – just don’t have “it”. Could have beaten Washington this past week but couldn’t push that last domino over. Gotta have heart too, not just physical talent.
- Seattle – this pick is based on Matt Hasselbeck missing 3-5 games. If he does, and you’re (1-4) at that point with Seneca Wallace, you’re done. This spot was reserved for the Chiefs if I had to make a list for right this second, but I think they end up better than Seattle as Todd Haley settles in and Seattle goes in a tank without Hasselbeck.
- I couldn’t decide the 5th team. It’s hard to put teams here with wins [when there’s winless teams out there]. Seattle is a predictive pick with Hasselbeck out. Boy I bet they wish they went after Vick now (Mora had Vick in Atlanta) but the owner vetoed it.
- (1-1) teams I think are weaker than some (0-2) teams: Oakland, Washington, and Green Bay. Oakland and Washington look bad. Just bad on O. Green Bay I know you find surprising here. But they don’t look “right”. Something is off. Too much talent on that O to be squeaking by the Bears because of 4 picks and losing at home to the Ocho Cincos, giving up 27 sacks in the process.
- (0-2) teams have to be thought of here since they’re winless, but for whatever reason I want to rate them higher than Oakland, Wash, or GB: Tampa, Carolina, Tennessee, Miami.
- I think this is my current MVP race, in no particular order: Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Rex Ryan, and Drew Brees.
- I think Tennessee looks like shit on the defensive line. Albert Haynesworth seems to be worth every penny the ‘skins are paying him.
- I think I want to know who these guys are and what they did with the Bengals. They’re a fluky tipped pass against the Broncos away from being 2-0. No one goes into Green Bay and wins like that. Jury is still out on whether that says more about Cinci or Green Bay. Also, who is this Cedric Benson fella you have running the ball. The name reminds me of a highly sought after running back out of the University of Texas, but that first Benson sucked in the NFL.
- I think Kurt Warner went 24 for 26, with one of those misses being a throw away to dodge a sack. That’s amazing. That dude is 84 years old and about as mobile as my house – but keeps getting it done.
- QUICK HITTERS:
- I think the Giants don’t need a “#1 receiver”.
- I think the Kansas City / Oakland game this past week, combined with the St. Louis / Washington game – were two of the worst NFL football games I’ve ever watched.
- I think I don’t want to hear a word from the Eagles fans about the Saints game. Donovan McNabb and his ribs don’t play defense. Apparently the Philadelphia defense doesn’t play defense either.
- Speaking of the Eagles and their McNabb-less game. They can’t even hate on Kevin Kolb, that cat threw for 391 and a couple scores. They just ran into a buzzsaw known as the New Orleans DrewBreeses.
- Speaking of the Saints, I think they are lucky that their out-of-conference match up this week with the Bills is in September and not December.
- This week’s Jerome Bettis Award – for unnecessary self celebration – goes to anyone on the Raiders or Redskins. You both won your games, two of the worst ever seen in the NFL, in just flat out bad boring horrid manners. No celebrating. These games were bad. No high fives, no back pats. Nothing. Go practice. Learn2play.
- This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to two people:
- Anyone involved in Crabtree-gate. His agent said the NYJets contacted him about a trade or re-draft next year. A paper reported it (in the NYJets area, not California). Then it comes out as tampering. Everyone retracts, like no one ever talked. Gimme a break. Let the guy sit at home and not make a cent. Let him go away. Chalk it up as a bad draft pick and move on. I wonder how a top tier college WR will fare after a year out of football, just ask Mike Williams from USC and the Lions.
- To jump to college for a second – Jessie Palmer and Craig James for their super awesomely mature making fun of Clemson fans in the Georgia Tech stands from 2 weeks ago. The tape of the ESPN coverage (like off air during commercials) got leaked to Youtube. Classy guys, real classy. My respect for you two specifically just went from 3% to 1%. Asses.