Week 16, NFL season 2009. You remember last week’s “BOOOOYAAAAAAA”? Yeah, the book is saying that this week. Holy crap nothing went as predicted in week 15. Nothing.
[I] 2009 Season Stats
66.67% straight up picks for your office pool (126-63)
53.95% against the spread this year on recommended plays (82-70)
51.71% over-all including the recommended no-actions (106-99)
Thoughts for the past week:
*Last week was not good. Some tight picks went as expected, or were close enough to write off as good games. But I have some severe cases of WTF for: New Orleans (not covering -7.5 fine, but losing outright at home to lose undefeatedness?), New York Jets (7 points at home against a non-playoff NFC team from a southern dome outside in New York in December? 7?), Denver (ummm, you’re approaching Jekyll and Hyde status with Houston and Jacksonville, now losing at home to the Raiders, led by Jamarcus Russell?), Seattle (24-7 loss at home to Tampa, you officially suck, bad), and Minnesota (hey geniuses, double Julius Peppers).
*I went (9-7) in the straight up picks for your office pool. You didn’t win your pool. (9-7) a week after a (14-1) week. Wow. Just wow Jay.
*With the books, I got prison raped. I went (8-8) overall, but went (3-1) in my NO ACTION picks, meaning I got hammerdogpunched at (5-7) in recommended plays. Ouch.
[II] Week 15 Picks/Comments – Enginerd Table
|GAME||LINE||OFFICE POOL WINNER||SPREAD WINNER||FAVE OR DOG?||ACTION?||HEART / COMMENT||PREDICTED SCORE|
|1||SD @ TENN||TENN -3.5||SD||SD||DOG||YES||Wait, SD is getting +3.5 here? I checked three sites and this line isn’t a misprint. I know TENN is still technically fighting for a playoff berth, but SD is the big man on campus around these parts lately.||SD 27-17 (SD outright win)|
|2||BUFF @ ATL||ATL -8.5||ATL||BUFF||DOG||YES||I think ATL and Brian Brohm (really?) win at home here, but I don’t like the -8.5 for a second. BUFF has a nasty habit of staying close in games they lose lately.||ATL 23-17 (Buffalo cover)|
|3||KC @ CIN||CIN -13.5||CIN||CIN||FAVE||YES||CINCY can still mathematically win the #2 seed in the AFC, and I don’t see KC derailing that. First home game since the death of Chris Henry, so they’ll still be some residual emotion and probably a small ceremony. CINCY wins going away here.||CIN 27-10|
|4||OAK @ CLE||NO LINE||CLE||N/A||N/A||NO||Another mandated NO ACTION pick here with no line available. Even Vegas doesn’t recognize this game as a viable game to watch or even bet on. [I assume the lack of line is because Quinn is out and Anderson is starting, and who knows who is playing QB for OAK] I think CLE wins at home here, but can’t put it against a line.||CLE 16-10|
|5||SEA @ GB||GB -13.5||GB||GB||FAVE||YES||Another week here with a couple two TD spreads. And I just can’t get off these favorites playing for playoff spots/seeding, and playing bad teams. Seattle got worked by Tampa last week (you read that right). Now they go to a pissed off GB team after getting caught at the end against PITT.||GB 34-13|
|6||BALT @ PITT||PITT -1.5||BALT||BALT||DOG||NO||This game has NO ACTION written all over it. All over it. Huge playoff implications, hated opponents, good history. This game is the game of the week to watch, but don’t bet on it with actual currency.||BALT 24-21 (Baltimore outright win)|
|7||HOU @ MIA||MIA -3.5||HOU||HOU||DOG||NO||Well looky here. Two of my Jekyll and Hyde teams are playing each other. With the same records. With the same playoff bubble. NO ACTION. Don’t touch it.||HOU 23-21 (Houston outright win)|
|8||JAX @ NE||NE -8.5||NE||NE||FAVE||YES||New England can still mathematically win the #2 seed, and more importantly the East. Jacksonville played their hearts out last week hosting INDY and couldn’t get it done. They’re dead in the hearts I fear. Brady, Moss, and Welker do their best Colt’s WR impressions on this bad secondary.||NE 30-13|
|9||TB @ NO||NO -13.5||NO||NO||FAVE||YES||Tampa gets the privilege of playing the pissed off Saints the week after they lost their undefeated season. And a game the Saints still need to secure home field throughout the playoffs. Sorry Bucs.||NO 38-10|
|10||CAR @ NYG||NYG -6.5||NYG||NYG||FAVE||YES||I’m fairly sure of the NYG win here. I was leaning towards CAR to cover the +6.5 and maybe even leaning towards a NO ACTION pick here (that the no line on OAK/CLE took). After watching what CAR did to MINN’s offensive line, and what the NYG did on Monday Night, I guess I’ll lean to the NYG here to cover the -6.5. I guess. Maybe.||NYG 27-20|
|11||DET @ SF||SF -10.5||SF||SF||FAVE||YES||I don’t like -10.5 at all here. I don’t. But I see a little bit of SF exercising some knocked-out-of-the-playoffs demons, and I don’t think DET scores more than 6. So the -10.5 becomes less fearful.||SF 20-6|
|12||STL @ ARI||ARI -13.5||ARI||ARI||FAVE||YES||Arizona can still win the NFC’s #2 seed, so they’ll be playing without the knowledge of MINN’s outcome yet, meaning still playing hard. And they won’t screw around with the Rams like they did the Lions. Zona BIG here.||ARI 30-6|
|13||NYJ @ INDY||INDY -5.5||INDY||INDY||FAVE||NO||NO ACTION here. The Jets need this game as they’re still mathematically alive in the playoff race. And the Colts locked up everything needed for the playoffs and will probably rest people. That said, I can’t in good conscience, pick against the 14-0 team against a rookie QB. I just can’t. Even though I can see the Jets squeaking one out here, I just can’t pick it. So NO ACTION.||INDY 28-20|
|14||DEN @ PHI||PHI -7.5||PHI||PHI||FAVE||YES||Philly will crush the Broncos little playoff dreams. Broncos run early had some weaker opponents, they’re finishing against some cream. Sorry Kyle.||PHI 27-16|
|15||DAL @ WASH||DAL -6.5||DAL||DAL||FAVE||YES||I’m a Redskin fan. And I don’t like what I’m about to type in the box to the right à||DAL 30-10|
|16||MINN @ CHI||MINN -6.5||MINN||MINN||FAVE||YES||Minnesota can still win the #1 seed, and can also still lose the #2 seed – and they’ll know both NO and ARI’s outcome pregame since they’re playing on MNF. And did I mention CHI is bad. Falling down bad, and getting worse.||MINN 27-13|
--only taking 4 dogs this week.
--2 of the NO ACTION picks are dogs, chickening out on BALT and HOU road covers.
[III] 10 or so things I think I think.
- I think these are my top 5 teams right now:
- INDY – jumping back to #1 even if New Orleans came back to beat Dallas. Very impressive offensive show in Jacksonville. Get an interior lineman to step up and stop the run and I can’t argue against it being your ring in the SB.
- SD – no one wants to play SD right now. No one. And they have recent history of winning in INDY in the playoffs. Gulp.
- PHI – this is hard to type as a Redskin fan. I think Philly is the cream of the NFC right now. Not simply because MINN and NO lost, but the way they’re playing is just better overall right now.
- NO – I want to take you out of the top 5 for that showing on Saturday night. Piss poor. But alas, you’ll probably still get to host throughout the playoffs.
- MINN/ARIZ – MINN is coming down off the list, ARIZ is jumping back on. If ‘zona’s D makes their usual late season push, I think they could win the NFC if they had home field advantage. MINN needs to regroup, and quickly.
- I think these are my bottom 5 teams right now:
- KC – the Chiefs are still turning in their sleep, screaming nightmarishly, “Cribbs! Harrison! Cribbs! Harrison!”
- STL – nice throwback jerseys Sunday. Represented them well. Not.
- DET – please don’t draft another WR in the top of the 2010 draft. Draft some O Line.
- CHI – yeah, I said it, on this list ahead of many teams with fewer wins. But for the way you’re playing, right this second, you belong on this list.
- SEA – see 2.d. CHI description.
- I think the Redskins need to draft offensive linemen, and ONLY offensive linemen with every pick in this year’s upcoming draft. Holy crap the Giants utterly destroyed the Redskins on the line on Monday night.
- I think I have to admit I was wrong 2 drafts ago about a guy because of his size. This year’s playoff game breaker could be one Deschaun Jackson of the Eagles. No one can cover him one-on-one on any team. So if he’s doubled every play, watch out for the secondary game breaker, Brent Celek?
- I think I can admit I got the chills and the hair on the back of my neck stood up when I saw Ocho Cinco catch that 49 yard TD and kneel in prayer for Chris Henry. He didn’t do a river dance, he didn’t propose marriage to a cheerleader. He knelt and looked up at his fallen friend. Then, even in the heat of an NFL game, couldn’t keep the tears back as he embraced teammates. It was raw unadulterated human emotion, and it was gut wrenching to watch.
- I think I’m not changing my tune on the Browns’ rebuilding. That Cribbs guy is insane. He needs to touch the ball more per game. They should trade for Mike Vick, draft Tim Tebow, and run Vick, Tebow, and Cribbs in the backfield in a modified wishbone on EVERY play. Call it the Wild-Brown or the Brown-Cat. It would be amazing. Holmgren, look me up. I’ll OC for ya.
- I think everyone owes Randy Moss an apology.
- I think my non-football thought for the week is: Merry Christmas all! Um, I mean Happy Holidays all!
- This week’s Jerome Bettis Award goes to Louis Delmas of the Detroit Lions. Let me not take away from the importance and specialness of your 100-yard interception return for a TD against the Cardinals Sunday. Arizona was up 17-0 and inside your 10 going to make it 24-0. Your pick made it 17-7 and literally turned the game around. All worth a little celebration and a dance maybe, and normally exclusion from the JBA for the week. However, after the initial celebration and dance, you continued it on the sideline, helmet off, Troy Polamalu-like hair flowing, in a choreographed number for about another 30 seconds. Enough already. You’re on the Lions, you suck, you made one good play. This isn’t dancing with the stars.
- This week’s Just Shut Up Award goes to Steve Smith, WR Carolina Panthers. He had a good game on Sunday Night Football, helped the Panthers beat the Vikings. There were his usual highlights during the game, to include his usual near-fight shit talking bouts with the secondary of the opponent. (side note: trend here? isn’t this guy always near-fighting and was once suspended for fighting his own teammate?) Anyways, it was his post game interview that landed him here. Interviewing with the NBC on field reporter after the game (he was offensive POG, Peppers was defensive POG), she asked him about the shit-talking-near-fight with the cornerback. His reply, “yeah, you know what I’m saying, I told him, you know what I’m saying, that, you know what I’m saying, he’s #22, you know what I’m saying, this is me, you know what I’m saying, this is #89!” [gorilla pounding his own chest a la Sammy Sosa with the part about “this is #89!”] Ummm, Steve, you uneducated ghetto prick. What the hell, exactly, are you talking about? You know what I’m saying.